IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esrepo/237053.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wachstumszwang in der Geldwirtschaft? Theoretische Erwägungen

Author

Listed:
  • Wenzlaff, Ferdinand
  • Kimmich, Christian
  • Koudela, Thomas
  • Richters, Oliver
  • Freydorf, Christoph
  • Schuster, Ludwig

Abstract

Dieses Papier soll als wissenschaftliche Grundlage einer Diskussion über die Vereinbarkeit einer positiven Zinsrate mit einer nicht mehr wachsenden Wirtschaft dienen. Erst eine Auseinandersetzung mit den komplexen und teils widersprüchlichen Fragen der Wirtschaftswissenschaft erlaubt, zu wirtschaftspolitischen Einsichten und schließlich zu politikberatenden Ansätzen zu kommen. Dazu soll zunächst der komplexe Zusammenhang von Geld und Zins (Ziffer 2.1) sowie die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung der Relation von Zins- und Wachstumsrate (Ziffer 2.2) aufgezeigt werden. Anschließend wird das Problem eines positiven Zins-Wachstumsdifferentials diskutiert und anhand der Liquiditätspräferenzhypothese erklärt (Ziffer 2.3). Der zu problematisierende Teil des Zinses wird außerdem von der Risikoprämie und der Bankmarge abgegrenzt (Ziffer 2.4) und ebenso wie die Zinsstruktur in seiner Wirkungsweise erklärt (Ziffer 2.4). Im Hauptteil der Analyse werden verschiedene Erklärungsansätze einer monetär bedingten Wachstumsnotwendigkeit dargestellt. Dabei wird zuerst das oft pauschal vorgebrachte Argument widerlegt, aus der verzinsten Kreditgeldschöpfung an sich folge bereits kausal ein Wachstumszwang (Ziffer 3.1). Danach wird gezeigt, dass und unter welchen Umständen trotzdem Wachstumszwänge resultieren, wobei der Verwendung der Zinseinkommen eine Schlüsselrolle zukommt (Ziffer 3.2). Weiterhin wird die Goldene Regel der Kapitalakkumulation behandelt (Ziffer 3.3) und das Zins-Wachstumsdifferential im engeren Zusammenhang mit dem öffentlichen Budget und der Staatsverschuldung analysiert (Ziffer 3.4). In dem Zusammenhang wird aufgezeigt, warum die Zentralbank bei schwachem oder ausbleibendem Wachstum in ein "geldpolitisches Dilemma" gerät (Ziffer 3.5). In Ziffer 4 werden einige ausgewählte Vorschläge zur Reform des Geld- und Finanzwesens aufgeführt und auf ihre Verträglichkeit mit Nullwachstum hin geprüft sowie zu typischen Bedenken im Zusammenhang mit Reformen Stellung genommen (Ziffer 5).

Suggested Citation

  • Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Koudela, Thomas & Richters, Oliver & Freydorf, Christoph & Schuster, Ludwig, 2012. "Wachstumszwang in der Geldwirtschaft? Theoretische Erwägungen," EconStor Research Reports 237053, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esrepo:237053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/237053/1/Memo-Zinssystem.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars P. Feld, 2010. "Sinnhaftigkeit und Effektivität der deutschen Schuldenbremse," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(3), pages 226-245, August.
    2. Buiter, Willem H., 2009. "Negative nominal interest rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 213-238, December.
    3. Willem H. Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2003. "Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates with negative interest on currency: gesell's solution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 723-746, October.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    5. van Suntum, Ulrich, 2009. "Economic confidence, negative interest rates, and liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," CAWM Discussion Papers 24, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    6. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    8. Ellingsen, Tore & Johannesson, Magnus, 2009. "Time is not money," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 96-102, October.
    9. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
    10. Heise, Arne, 2001. "Das Konzept einer nachhaltigen Finanzpolitik aus heterodoxer Sicht. Ein Diskussionsbeitrag," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 76, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 1996. "Zinssatz, Investitionsdynamik, Wachstumsrate und Staatsverschuldung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2816, Juni.
    12. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
    13. Keen, Steve, 2010. "Solving the paradox of monetary profits," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    15. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
    17. Cordelius Ilgmann & Martin Menner, 2011. "Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 383-405, December.
    18. Bezemer, Dirk J., 2010. "Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 676-688, October.
    19. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    20. Norbert Olah & Thomas Huth & Dirk Löhr, 2010. "Geldpolitik mit optimaler Zinsstruktur," Working Paper Series in Economics 160, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    21. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    22. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia (ed.), 2004. "Central Banking in the Modern World," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3297.
    23. Jürgen Blazejczak (Hrsg.), 1998. "Zukunftsgestaltung ohne Wirtschaftswachstum?: Ergebnisse eines Workshops des DIW im Auftrag von Greenpeace Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 168, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Ulrike Stein, 2009. "Zur Entwicklung der Sparquoten der privaten Haushalte: eine Auswertung von Haushaltsdaten des SOEP," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 249, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    25. Louis-Philippe Rochon, 1999. "Credit, Money and Production," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1565.
    26. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    28. Richard A. Werner, 2005. "New Paradigm in Macroeconomics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50607-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    2. Freydorf, Christoph & Kimmich, Christian & Koudela, Thomas & Schuster, Ludwig & Wenzlaff, Ferdinand, 2012. "Wachstumszwänge in der Geldwirtschaft. Zwischenbericht der Wissenschaftlichen Arbeitsgruppe nachhaltiges Geld," EconStor Preprints 142471, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
    5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2011. "Should central banks raise their inflation targets? Some relevant issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 97(2Q), pages 111-131.
    6. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    7. Billi, Roberto M., 2018. "Price level targeting and risk management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 163-173.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    9. Katrin Assenmacher & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money," IMF Working Papers 2018/191, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Anwar Khayat, 2015. "Negative Policy Rates, Banking Flows and Exchange Rates," AMSE Working Papers 1538, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2015.
    11. Schoenle, Raphael & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    13. Benjamín García, 2016. "Zero Lower Bound Risk and Long-Term Inflation in a Time Varying Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 796, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "The Future of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(s1), pages 23-36, September.
    15. Michau, Jean-Baptiste, 2019. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap with inflation persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-28.
    16. Christian Pfister, Natacha Valla, 2018. "‘New Normal’ or ‘New Orthodoxy’? Elements of a Central Banking Framework for the After-Crisis," Working papers 680, Banque de France.
    17. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    18. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    19. Junning Cai, 2004. "Liquidity Trap Prevention and Escape: A Simple Proposition," Macroeconomics 0402033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00801712 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geld; Wachstumszwang; Geldwirtschaft; Nachhaltigkeit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esrepo:237053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.