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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Preliminate for 2010, November estimate


  • Institute for Economic Forecasting
  • Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling


The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present only the economic preliminate for 2010 of the variable of interest. For a description of the mode see Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 8(1): 115-125.

Suggested Citation

  • Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Preliminate for 2010, November estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 208-212, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:4:p:208-212

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
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    4. Paul Hiebert & Javier J. Pérez & Massimo Rostagno, 2002. "Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/12, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    5. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael, 2006. "Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1487-1506, August.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel R. Feenberg, 2000. "The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 37-56, Summer.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
    8. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile; The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 03/182, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Suescun, Rodrigo, 2007. "The size and effectiveness of automatic fiscal stabilizers in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4244, The World Bank.
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    More about this item


    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt


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