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Possible Evolutions of Investment Rate – Error Correction Models Scenarios

  • Scutaru, Cornelia

    ()

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, NIER, Romanian Academy, Member of Academy of Romanian Scientists)

Starting from the basic relationship among investment, GDP and the active interest rate estimated as long-term tendency, several short-term dynamics equation are built for revealing the impact of different factors: cost of capital, foreign direct investments, labor (unemployment rate, real net wage, tax burden). The impact of the economic crisis is analyzed in relation to the changes that occur on long term in the elasticities of different factors. Scenarios are built, which allow for previsions on the possible macroeconomic evolutions. Some required economic policy measures are suggested, with the view to diminish the negative impacts of certain factors in times of economic crisis.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p141-162.pdf
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Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 141-162

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:141-162
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  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
  2. Scutaru, Cornelia & Saman, Corina & Stanica, Cristian, 2009. "The Relation between Predictability and Complexity: Domestic and Public Consumption in the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(3), pages 34-46, September.
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