IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The Relation between Predictability and Complexity: Domestic and Public Consumption in the Romanian Economy

Listed author(s):
  • Scutaru, Cornelia


    (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Forecasting)

  • Saman, Corina


    (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Forecasting)

  • Stanica, Cristian


    (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Forecasting)

We continue with the problem of the relation between predictability and complexity in the Romanian economy, analyzing other two components of GDP: domestic consumption and public consumption. The basic idea of this work is that the unpredictability of a system gives a measure of its complexity, so that in order to predict a future state of a complex system one must find the system structure explained by some simpler components that can be predicted. The complexity of the economic system is reflected in the synthetic macroeconomic indicators (GDP and its components). We find the principal components of the macroeconomic variables as a preprocessing step and model them as linear combinations of some simpler non observable predictable variables; we have constructed empirical models for domestic and public consumption; it was shown that these models are sufficiently accurate to predict for two or three periods ahead.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 34-46

in new window

Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:34-46
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172

Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:34-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.