IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98689.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Essays In Fiscal Policy And State Dependence Fiscal Policy Innovations Using A New Econometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe

Abstract

Unparalleled is a word that best describes the current state of advanced economies. Interest rates are low in many advanced countries and negative in a few others suggesting that monetary policy has lost its effectiveness. The economic policy tool that has not been implemented yet by many advanced economies is fiscal policy. This thesis studies the effect of fiscal policy in USA, UK and Germany and find positive effects of extra government purchases on output, inflation, private consumption, business investment, wages and hours worked. As a contribution to the academic literature on fiscal policy, this thesis estimates the impact of automatic stabilisers on economic activity and finds it holds predictive content for the path of output and inflation with both showing a positive response. Furthermore, this thesis adds to the literature on state-dependence fiscal policy by using a novel econometric approach to study the effect of expansionary fiscal policy during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2018. "Essays In Fiscal Policy And State Dependence Fiscal Policy Innovations Using A New Econometric Approach," MPRA Paper 98689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98689
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98689/2/MPRA_paper_98689.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Jonathan Portes & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2015. "Issues in the Design of Fiscal Policy Rules," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 56-86, September.
    3. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    4. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    5. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2011. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 27-54, January.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    7. Renee Courtois Haltom & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2011. "Is stimulative fiscal policy more effective at the zero lower bound?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Aug.
    8. Braun, R. Anton & Körber, Lena Mareen, 2011. "New Keynesian dynamics in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2213-2227.
    9. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    10. Matthew Canzoneri & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas & Behzad Diba, 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 75-108, February.
    11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    12. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 235-249.
    13. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    15. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2011. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 27-54, January.
    16. Fernando M. Martin, 2016. "Where Did All the New Liquidity Go?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan.
    17. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke, 2015. "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9928-2.
    19. Tatiana Kirsanova & Sven Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2005. "The Interactions between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 532-564, Winter.
    20. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    21. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    22. Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 1998. "The Effects of Tax Wedges on Hours Worked and Unemployment in Sweden," IMF Working Papers 1998/152, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2005. "Economic Forecasting," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-00581-5.
    24. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2015. "Understanding the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 110-167, January.
    25. Fernando M. Martin, 2016. "Revisiting GDP Growth Projections," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 5, pages 1-2.
    26. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    27. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2015. "US Domestic Money, Output, Inflation and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 68095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2016. "How to Restore Equitable and Sustainable Economic Growth in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 43-47, May.
    29. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2008. "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1486-1508, June.
    30. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    31. Dupor, Bill & Guerrero, Rodrigo, 2017. "Local and aggregate fiscal policy multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 16-30.
    32. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    33. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    34. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    35. Alfonso ARPAIA & Alessandro TURRINI, 2008. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short-Term Adjustment," EcoMod2008 23800006, EcoMod.
    36. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    37. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    38. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    39. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
    40. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    41. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.
    42. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "How Complicated Does the Model Have to Be?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 33-42, Winter.
    43. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    44. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    45. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "Consumption, government spending, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 215-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ackon, Kwabena Meneabe, 2020. "Fiscal Policy Innovations In Advanced Economies," MPRA Paper 100737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    3. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    5. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    6. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    7. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 169-195, February.
    9. Matthew Canzoneri & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas & Behzad Diba, 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 75-108, February.
    10. Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.
    11. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.
    12. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 169-195, February.
    13. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712, November.
    14. Javier Andrés & José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household Leverage and Fiscal Multipliers," Working Papers 1103, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    15. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    16. Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2018. "The state-dependent effects of tax shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 57-85.
    17. Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2019. "The effects of fiscal policy on output: Does the business cycle matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 27-36.
    18. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2021. "Can public spending boost private consumption?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1275-1313, November.
    19. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
    20. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2020. "How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending?," Working Papers 0676, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Government; Investment; Econometrics; state dependence fiscal policy; economic policy; Business Investment; wages; Gross Domestic Product; Consumption; IS-LM; Inflation Dynamics; USA; UK and Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A2 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics
    • A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.