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On the size of fiscal multipliers: A counterfactual analysis

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  • Kuckuck, Jan
  • Westermann, Frank

Abstract

We point out that fiscal multipliers derived from SVAR-models include the predicted future path of policy instruments. After the initial shock, net taxes and government expenditures react to each other and are autocorrelated. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuckuck, Jan & Westermann, Frank, 2014. "On the size of fiscal multipliers: A counterfactual analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 26-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:123:y:2014:i:1:p:26-32 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.11.036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Venturini, Fiorenza, 2016. "Are Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers Truly Reliable? Some Observations Starting from the Case of Japan," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP23, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    2. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Oscar E. Guzman, 2017. "The Size of Fiscal Multipliers and the Stance of Monetary Policy in Developing Economies," Working Papers 106, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Government spending; Net revenues; Structural vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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