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On the size of fiscal multipliers: A counterfactual analysis

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  • Kuckuck, Jan
  • Westermann, Frank

Abstract

We point out that fiscal multipliers derived from SVAR-models include the predicted future path of policy instruments. After the initial shock, net taxes and government expenditures react to each other and are autocorrelated. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses.

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  • Kuckuck, Jan & Westermann, Frank, 2014. "On the size of fiscal multipliers: A counterfactual analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 26-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:123:y:2014:i:1:p:26-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.11.036
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    Cited by:

    1. Jair N. Ojeda‐Joya & Oscar E. Guzman, 2019. "The Size Of Fiscal Multipliers And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Developing Economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 621-640, October.
    2. Hollmayr, Josef & Kuckuck, Jan, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers of central, state and local government and of the social security funds in Germany: Evidence of a SVAR," Discussion Papers 28/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Fiorenza Venturini, 2016. "Are Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers Truly Reliable? Some Observations Starting from the Case of Japan," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP23, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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