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Trend and cycle features in German residential investment before and after reunification

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  • Knetsch, Thomas A.

Abstract

Real residential investment in Germany is found to be cointegrated with population, real national income per capita and real house prices. This evidence is consistent with a model where the trend in housing demand is determined by demographic factors and economic well-being to which supply adjusts so slowly that real house prices are affected persistently. Reunification seems to have induced two structural changes in the empirical housing market model. First, the speed of equilibrium adjustment via residential investment slowed down substantially and real house prices lost the capacity to contribute to the adjustment process. Second, the degree of persistence in the error correction term increased a lot. The changing features are key to explain significant differences in alternative trend-cycle decompositions of residential investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Knetsch, Thomas A., 2010. "Trend and cycle features in German residential investment before and after reunification," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    2. lvarez, L-J. & Bulligan, G. & Cabrero, A. & Laurent Ferrara & Stahl, H., 2009. "Housing cycles in the major euro area countries," Working papers 269, Banque de France.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    2. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Gabe J. de Bondt & Arne Gieseck, 2023. "Forecasting housing investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 543-565, April.
    3. lvarez, L-J. & Bulligan, G. & Cabrero, A. & Laurent Ferrara & Stahl, H., 2009. "Housing cycles in the major euro area countries," Working papers 269, Banque de France.
    4. Naik, Prasad A., 2015. "Marketing Dynamics: A Primer on Estimation and Control," Foundations and Trends(R) in Marketing, now publishers, vol. 9(3), pages 175-266, December.
    5. Young Il Kim, 2014. "Housing and business cycles in Korea: assessing the role of housing volume cycles," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 3, pages 40-61, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Forecasting US real private residential fixed investment using a large number of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1557-1580, December.
    7. Thomas Bauer & Sven Feuerschütte & Michael Kiefer & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Lars-Holger Wilke, 2013. "Ein hedonischer Immobilienpreisindex auf Basis von Internetdaten: 2007–2011," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, August.
    8. repec:rza:wpaper:375 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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