What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis
Time series of electricity, petroleum products, and renewables are found to be highly correlated with total energy consumption. Applying this insight to the huge literature on energy-GDP causality explains that the results of total energy-GDP causality tests frequently coincide with the results of energy type-GDP tests. Using the test by Toda–Yamamoto in combination with a cointegration-based testing approach, we detect such cases of concordance for 92% of the countries in our sample of 65 countries. We infer that drawing specific economic conclusions with regard to single types of energy from bivariate causality analysis is difficult.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & Falahi, Mohammad Ali & Ashena, Malihe, 2010. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5115-5120.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Vaona, Andrea, 2012.
"Granger non-causality tests between (non)renewable energy consumption and output in Italy since 1861: The (ir)relevance of structural breaks,"
Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 226-236.
- Andrea Vaona, 2010. "Granger non-causality tests between (non)renewable energy consumption and output in Italy since 1861: the (ir)relevance of structural breaks," Working Papers 19/2010, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2010.
"Economic impacts from the promotion of renewable energy technologies: The German experience,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4048-4056, August.
- Manuel Frondel & Nolan Ritter & Christoph M. Schmidt & Colin Vance, 2009. "Economic Impacts from the Promotion of Renewable Energy Technologies - The German Experience," Ruhr Economic Papers 0156, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "Coal consumption and economic growth revisited," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 160-167, January.
- Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2007. "Exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models: New evidence from G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1233-1253, November.
- Stephan B. Bruns & Christian Gross & David I. Stern, 2013.
"Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?,"
Crawford School Research Papers
1307, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian & Stern, David I., 2013. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," FCN Working Papers 11/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Liyan Han & Donghui Li & Fariborz Moshirian & Yanhui Tian, 2010. "Insurance Development and Economic Growth*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(2), pages 183-199, April.
- Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
- Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996.
"Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation,"
31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
- Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
- Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
- Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008.
"Renewable energy and employment in Germany,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
- Hongyi Li & Huang Liang, 2010. "Health, education, and economic growth in East Asia," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 110-131, June.
- Stern, David & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013.
"Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run,"
Lund Papers in Economic History
126, Department of Economic History, Lund University.
- Stern, David I. & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013. "Causality between energy and output in the long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 135-146.
- David I. Stern & Kerstin Enflo, 2013. "Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run," CAMA Working Papers 2013-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- James E. Payne, 2010. "Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 53-95, January.
- Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
- Gross, Christian, 2012.
"Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S.—A multivariate sectoral analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 489-499.
- Christian Gross, 2011. "Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S. - A multivariate sectoral analysis," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2011-04, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
- Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
- David I. Stern and Astrid Kander, 2012.
"The Role of Energy in the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
- David I. Stern & Astrid Kander, 2011. "The Role of Energy in the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth," CAMA Working Papers 2011-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
- Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:753-759. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.