O nexus energia-crescimento e o nível da auto-suficiência na produção de petróleo: análise com macro painel[Energy-growth nexus and oil self-sufficiency: macro panel analysis]

Our study presents a new perspective of the nexus of causality between energy consumption and economic growth, controlling for exports of goods and services, employment, oil revenues, inflation and the self-sufficiency. The analysis covers a set of 14 oil producing countries from a diverse universe, in the period 1970-2012. We proceeded to the use of ARDL estimator which allows to analyse the dynamic relationships among variables, and the Driscoll-Kraay estimator which permitted to correct the instability of the parameters. The results of the macro panel show that exports and the self-sufficiency have na influence on the short term and the long run. Exports show a more extensive dynamic complexity in the short term than in the long run one. Self-sufficiency proved crucial variable. Without it, the model would lose its explanatory power. Furthermore the inclusion of this variable in the model allowed us to analyse oil producing countries, which in general introduces a specificity.