Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S.—A multivariate sectoral analysis
The rapidly growing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has not univocally identified the causal relationship yet. We argue that bivariate models, which analyze the causality only at the macro level, are eventually misleading, especially in cases where both variables do not cover the same scope of economic activity. After discussing appropriate pairs of variables, we investigate Granger causality between energy and growth in the U.S. for the period from 1970 to 2007 for three sectors, industry, commercial sector, transport, as well as on the macro level. Using the recently developed ARDL bounds testing approach by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001), we find evidence for unidirectional long-run Granger causality in the commercial sector from growth to energy, as well as evidence for bi-directional long-run Granger causality in the transport sector. The dependence of causality on the level of aggregation is interpreted as evidence for ‘Simpsons' Paradox’. The choice of control variables is based on findings from the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature: we find that controlling for the increasing energy productivity of production as well as trade significantly improves the fit of the bivariate model.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 739-750, October.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Cole, Matthew A., 2004. "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-81, January.
- Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-68, August.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Alcott, Blake, 2005. "Jevons' paradox," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 9-21, July.
- Warr, B.S. & Ayres, R.U., 2010. "Evidence of causality between the quantity and quality of energy consumption and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1688-1693.
- Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Service Offshoring and Productivity: Evidence from the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 203-220, 02.
- Kander, Astrid & Lindmark, Magnus, 2006. "Foreign trade and declining pollution in Sweden: a decomposition analysis of long-term structural and technological effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1590-1599, September.
- Suri, Vivek & Chapman, Duane, 1998. "Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 195-208, May.
- Henriques, Sofia Teives & Kander, Astrid, 2010. "The modest environmental relief resulting from the transition to a service economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 271-282, December.
- Wang, Chunhua, 2007. "Decomposing energy productivity change: A distance function approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1326-1333.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 910-918, February.
- Zarnikau, Jay, 1999. "Defining 'total energy use' in economic studies: does the aggregation approach matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 485-492, October.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2006. "The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1086-1093, June.
- Panayotou T, 1993. "Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development," ILO Working Papers 292778, International Labour Organization.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2009.
"Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-239, March.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2008. "Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3063-3076, November.
- Jaruwan Chontanawat & Lester C Hunt & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 113, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- James E. Payne, 2010. "Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 53-95, January.
- Rock, Michael T., 1996. "Pollution intensity of GDP and trade policy: Can the World Bank be wrong?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 471-479, March.
- Harrison, Ann, 1996.
"Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
- Ann Harrison, 1995. "Openness and Growth: A Time-Series, Cross-Country Analysis for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 5221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harrison, Ann, 1991. "Openness and growth : a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 809, The World Bank.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005.
"Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries,"
Monash Economics Working Papers
06/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
- Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
- Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Hunt, Lester C. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Does energy consumption cause economic growth?: Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 209-220.
- Aguayo, Francisco & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2005. "Economic reform, energy, and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 829-837, May.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1979. "Causality and econometrics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 9-54, January.
- Nguyen V. Hong, 1983. "Notes - Two Measures of Aggregate Energy Production Elasticities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Hwang, Been-Kwei, 1984. "The relationship between energy and GNP : Further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 186-190, July.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
- Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-64, December.
- Schafer, Andreas, 2005. "Structural change in energy use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 429-437, March.
- Arik Levinson, 2010. "Offshoring Pollution: Is the United States Increasingly Importing Polluting Goods?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 63-83, Winter.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
- David I. Stern, 1998.
"A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy,"
Working Papers in Ecological Economics
9803, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
- Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "The causal relationship between U.S. energy consumption and real output: A disaggregated analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 180-188.
- Tobey, James A, 1990. "The Effects of Domestic Environmental Policies on Patterns of World Trade: An Empirical Test," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 191-209.
- Thoma, Mark, 2004. "Electrical energy usage over the business cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, May.
- Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T. & Soytas, Ugur, 2008. "The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2302-2313, September.
- Martin Neil Baily, 1981. "Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 1-66.
- Ghosh, Sajal, 2009. "Electricity supply, employment and real GDP in India: evidence from cointegration and Granger-causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2926-2929, August.
- Wang, Chunhua, 2011. "Sources of energy productivity growth and its distribution dynamics in China," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 279-292, January.
- Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2007. "Exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models: New evidence from G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1233-1253, November.
- Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
- Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 1994. "The relation between marginal product and price in US energy markets : Implications for climate change policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-158, April.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:489-499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.