Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S. - A multivariate sectoral analysis
The rapidly growing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has not univocally identified the â€˜realâ€™ causal relationship yet. We argue that bivariate models, which analyze the causality at the level of the total economy, are not appropriate â€“ especially in cases where both variables do not cover the same scope of economic activity. After discussing appropriate pairs of variables, we investigate Granger causality between energy consumption and GDP in the U.S. for the period from 1970 to 2007 for three sectors - industry, commercial sector, transport as well as for the total economy. The choice of additional variables is based on major findings from the Environmental Kuznets curve literature and its critical reflections. Using the recently developed ARDL bounds testing approach by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001), we find evidence for long-run Granger causality for the commercial sector, in case energy is the dependent variable, as well as bi-directional long-run Granger causality for the transport sector. We conclude that controlling for trade as well as increasing energy productivity significantly improves the fit of several extensions of the bivariate model.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb19/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 910-918, February.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2008.
"Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3063-3076, November.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2009. "Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-239, March.
- Stern, David I., 2000.
"A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
- David I. Stern, 1998. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9803, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
- Harrison, Ann, 1991.
"Openness and growth : a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
809, The World Bank.
- Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
- Ann Harrison, 1995. "Openness and Growth: A Time-Series, Cross-Country Analysis for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 5221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2006. "The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1086-1093, June.
- Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2007. "Exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models: New evidence from G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1233-1253, November.
- Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
- Zarnikau, Jay, 1999. "Defining 'total energy use' in economic studies: does the aggregation approach matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 485-492, October.
- Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-64, December.
- Nguyen V. Hong, 1983. "Notes - Two Measures of Aggregate Energy Production Elasticities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
- Arik Levinson, 2010. "Offshoring Pollution: Is the United States Increasingly Importing Polluting Goods?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 63-83, Winter.
- Schafer, Andreas, 2005. "Structural change in energy use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 429-437, March.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
- Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-68, August.
- Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Hunt, Lester C. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Does energy consumption cause economic growth?: Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 209-220.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Hwang, Been-Kwei, 1984. "The relationship between energy and GNP : Further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 186-190, July.
- Martin Neil Baily, 1981. "Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 1-66.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007.
"Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 06/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
- Ghosh, Sajal, 2009. "Electricity supply, employment and real GDP in India: evidence from cointegration and Granger-causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2926-2929, August.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Jaruwan Chontanawat & Lester C Hunt & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 113, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1979. "Causality and econometrics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 9-54, January.
- Thoma, Mark, 2004. "Electrical energy usage over the business cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, May.
- Wang, Chunhua, 2011. "Sources of energy productivity growth and its distribution dynamics in China," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 279-292, January.
- Warr, B.S. & Ayres, R.U., 2010. "Evidence of causality between the quantity and quality of energy consumption and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1688-1693.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "The causal relationship between U.S. energy consumption and real output: A disaggregated analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 180-188.
- Henriques, Sofia Teives & Kander, Astrid, 2010. "The modest environmental relief resulting from the transition to a service economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 271-282, December.
- Alcott, Blake, 2005. "Jevons' paradox," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 9-21, July.
- Kander, Astrid & Lindmark, Magnus, 2006. "Foreign trade and declining pollution in Sweden: a decomposition analysis of long-term structural and technological effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1590-1599, September.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
- Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Service Offshoring and Productivity: Evidence from the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 203-220, 02.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
- Rock, Michael T., 1996. "Pollution intensity of GDP and trade policy: Can the World Bank be wrong?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 471-479, March.
- Wang, Chunhua, 2007. "Decomposing energy productivity change: A distance function approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1326-1333.
- Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T. & Soytas, Ugur, 2008. "The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2302-2313, September.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
- Panayotou T, 1993. "Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development," ILO Working Papers 292778, International Labour Organization.
- Suri, Vivek & Chapman, Duane, 1998. "Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 195-208, May.
- Cole, Matthew A., 2004. "Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-81, January.
- Tobey, James A, 1990. "The Effects of Domestic Environmental Policies on Patterns of World Trade: An Empirical Test," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 191-209.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 1994. "The relation between marginal product and price in US energy markets : Implications for climate change policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-158, April.
- Aguayo, Francisco & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2005. "Economic reform, energy, and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 829-837, May.
- James E. Payne, 2010. "Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 53-95, January.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 739-750, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esi:evopap:2011-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christoph Mengs)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.