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Macromodel Estimations For The Updated 2004 Version Of The Romanian Pre-Accession Economic Programme - Working Paper

Listed author(s):
  • Dobrescu, Emilian


    (National Institute for Economic Research)

The structure of the macromodel used for simulations is presented in Introduction and in the Appendix. For the period 2005-2008, a Main Scenario was elaborated. It embodies performances envisaged in “Romania’s Medium-Term Economic Strategy” (2000) and in the 2001-2004 versions of the “Pre-Accession Economic Programme”. Two possible deviations are also examined: the first involves a more relaxed income policy (including higher public budget deficits) and the second is built on a more accentuated real apreciation of the ROL. Previous simulations (for 2002-2005, 2003-2007, and 2004-2010) have operated with similar forecasting schemes (Dobrescu 2002a, 2002c, 2003, 2004). However, the present estimations slightly modify the corresponding indicators due to: · the updating of statistical series; · the changes in macroeconomic policies and in the international environment; · the upgrading of some computational hypotheses. (*PHARE programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission for Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies).

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Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 5-29

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:5-29
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