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Macromodel Estimations For The Updated 2004 Version Of The Romanian Pre-Accession Economic Programme - Working Paper

Author

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    () (National Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

The structure of the macromodel used for simulations is presented in Introduction and in the Appendix. For the period 2005-2008, a Main Scenario was elaborated. It embodies performances envisaged in “Romania’s Medium-Term Economic Strategy” (2000) and in the 2001-2004 versions of the “Pre-Accession Economic Programme”. Two possible deviations are also examined: the first involves a more relaxed income policy (including higher public budget deficits) and the second is built on a more accentuated real apreciation of the ROL. Previous simulations (for 2002-2005, 2003-2007, and 2004-2010) have operated with similar forecasting schemes (Dobrescu 2002a, 2002c, 2003, 2004). However, the present estimations slightly modify the corresponding indicators due to: · the updating of statistical series; · the changes in macroeconomic policies and in the international environment; · the upgrading of some computational hypotheses. (*PHARE programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission for Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies).

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2005. "Macromodel Estimations For The Updated 2004 Version Of The Romanian Pre-Accession Economic Programme - Working Paper," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(1), pages 5-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:5-29
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004. "Economia Romaniei in perioada 2003-2010: Estimari de macromodel
      [Romanian economy during 2003-2010: Macromodel estimations]
      ," MPRA Paper 35768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; simulations; forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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