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Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth

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  • FEDERICO RAVENNA
  • FABIO M. NATALUCCI

Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy where productivity growth differentials between tradable and non-tradable sectors result in an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate-the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect. The paper explores the dynamic properties of this economy and the welfare implications of alternative policy rules. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation limits the range of policy rules that, with a given probability, keep inflation and exchange rate within predetermined numerical targets. We also find that the B-S effect raises by an order of magnitude the welfare loss associated with policy rules that prescribe active exchange rate management. Copyright (c)2008 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Ravenna & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2008. "Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 243-271, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:2-3:p:243-271
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    Cited by:

    1. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2015. "Monetary policy, incomplete asset markets, and welfare in a small open economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 112-121.
    2. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2016. "External Debt and Taylor Rules in a Small Open Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 541-559, December.
    3. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2015. "Capital Controls, Monetary Policy, and Balance Sheets in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-10, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2017.
    4. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    5. Robert Ambrisko, 2015. "A Small Open Economy with the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp547, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9441-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:chieco:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:166-185 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:18:y:2018:i:1:p:19:n:12 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
    10. Jesus M. Garcia-Iglesias & Rebeca Muñoz Torres & George Saridakis, 2013. "Did the Bank of Mexico follow a systematic behaviour in its transition to an inflation targeting regime?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1205-1213, July.
    11. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00881359, HAL.
    12. Lombardo, Giovanni & Ravenna, Federico, 2014. "Openness and optimal monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 153-172.
    13. Pourroy, Marc, 2012. "Does exchange rate control improve inflation targeting in emerging economies?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 448-450.
    14. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Post-Print halshs-00881359, HAL.
    16. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 09/234, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2017. "Capital Controls, Macroprudential Regulation,and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-18, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2018.
    18. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    19. Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Criteria and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv226, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    21. Kitano Shigeto & Takaku Kenya, 2018. "Capital controls as a credit policy tool in a small open economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January.
    22. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2017. "Capital Controls and Financial Frictions in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 761-793, September.
    23. Horváth, Roman & Maršál, Aleš, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching," FinMaP-Working Papers 22, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.

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