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Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation


  • Canzoneri, Matthew, et al


The paper examines a long-run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross-country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa-Samuelson "productivity hypothesis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Canzoneri, Matthew, et al, 2002. "Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 497-516, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:497-516

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation," Working Paper Series 278, European Central Bank.
    2. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    3. Christian Just, 2004. "The International Financial Architecture: Official Proposals on Crisis Resolution," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 73-89.
    4. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2017. "“Conditional PPP” and real exchange rate convergence in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 78-92.
    5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 927, European Central Bank.
    6. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
    7. Romain Restout, 2008. "Monopolistic Competition and the Dependent Economy Model," Working Papers 0803, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    8. Andrén, Niclas & Oxelheim, Lars, 2006. "Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency," Working Paper Series 668, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    9. Andersson, Malin & Masuch, Klaus & Schiffbauer, Marc, 2009. "Determinants of inflation and price level differentials across the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1129, European Central Bank.
    10. Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2822, Sciences Po.
    11. John H. Rogers, 2002. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: how close is Europe to the United States?," International Finance Discussion Papers 740, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    13. M. Katsimi, 2004. "Inflation divergence in the euro area: the Balassa-Samuelson effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 329-332.
    14. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    15. Ruscher, Eric & Wolff, Guntram B., 2009. "External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro," MPRA Paper 19151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. PIROVANO, Mara & VAN POECK, André, 2011. "Eurozone inflation differentials and the ECB," Working Papers 2011014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    18. Niclas Andrén & Lars Oxelheim, 2011. "Exchange rate regime shift and price patterns," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 153-178, April.
    19. Carmen Mar? Mart?ez, 2003. "The Structural Approach of a Natrex Model on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 588.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    20. VAN POECK, André, 2009. "One money and fifteen needs inflation and output convergence in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2009001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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