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The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching

Listed author(s):
  • Horváth, Roman
  • Maršál, Aleš

We lay out a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Markov switching to study the term structure of interest rates. We extend the previous models by opening up the economy and adding a foreign demand channel. As a result, we explain the term structure of Czech interest rates and that the open economy version of the model fits reasonably well the period after the adoption of inflation targeting, which was characterized by two regimes: 1) a disinflation regime and 2) a price stability regime.

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Paper provided by Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents in its series FinMaP-Working Papers with number 22.

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Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:22
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  1. Sutherland, Alan, 2006. "The expenditure switching effect, welfare and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1159-1182, July.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
  3. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic?," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 9, pages 117-130 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
  5. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
  6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  7. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
  8. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
  9. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
  10. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, 07.
  11. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
  12. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
  13. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
  14. Federico Ravenna & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2008. "Monetary Policy Choices in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of High Productivity Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 243-271, 03.
  15. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
  16. Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2011. "Exact likelihood computation for nonlinear DSGE models with heteroskedastic innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2167-2185.
  17. Bergin, Paul R. & Shin, Hyung-Cheol & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Does exchange rate variability matter for welfare? A quantitative investigation of stabilization policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1041-1058, May.
  18. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  19. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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