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The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day

  • Bernoth, Kerstin
  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • de Vries, Casper

We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coeffcient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-speci fic and a time-to-maturity e ffect. Once we do this, we nd that the coefficients on the forward premium are much closer to one. The latent factor is shown to be related to conventional proxies of risk.

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/62017/1/VfS_2012_pid_871.pdf
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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century with number 62017.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:62017
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 07.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. Hsieh, David A., 1984. "Tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 173-184, August.
  3. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
  4. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
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  7. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1985. "Foreign Currency Futures," NBER Working Papers 1743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  11. Liang Ding & Linh To, 2010. "The Forward Premium Puzzle Across Maturities," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1113-1119.
  12. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
  13. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  15. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Polakoff, Michael A. & Grier, Paul C., 1991. "A comparison of foreign exchange forward and futures prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1057-1080, December.
  17. Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  18. Chang, Carolyn W & Chang, Jack S K, 1990. " Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1333-36, September.
  19. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  20. Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-45, December.
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