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The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day

  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Jürgen von Hagen
  • Casper G. de Vries

We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a time- to-maturity effect. Once we do this, we find that the coefficients on the forward premium are much closer to one. The latent factor is shown to be related to conventional proxies of risk.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.354600.de/dp989.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 989.

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Length: 37 p.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp989
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  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2007. "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
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  19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Liang Ding & Linh To, 2010. "The Forward Premium Puzzle Across Maturities," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1113-1119.
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