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The Term Structure of Currency Futures' Risk Premia

Author

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  • Bernoth, Kerstin
  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • de Vries, Caspar

Abstract

The use of futures instead of forwards exchange contracts completes the ma-turity spectrum of the correlation between spot yields and the premium. Wefind that the forward premium puzzle appears to be a precrisis phenomenonand is only observed for maturities longer than about 1 month. Differencesin the exposure to risk help to explain cross-sectional spreads in currency ex-cess returns. However, this only applies for medium and longer maturities.Considering that most studies that test the validity of a risk-based approachto currency excess returns focus on short maturity securities, this explainswhy this approach is so often rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & de Vries, Caspar, 2022. "The Term Structure of Currency Futures' Risk Premia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 5-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:264447
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12872
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut & Trienens, Lasse, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302351, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    2. Kerstin Bernoth & Helmut Herwartz & Lasse Trienens, 2023. "The Impacts of Global Risk and US Monetary Policy on US Dollar Exchange Rates and Excess Currency Returns," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2037, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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