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Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

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  • V. LEWIS

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  • A. MARKIEWICZ

Abstract

Rational expectations models fail to explain the disconnect between the ex-change rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. In line with survey evidence on the behaviour of foreign exchange traders, we introduce model misspecification and learning into a standard monetary model. Agents use simple forecasting rules based on a restricted information set. They learn about the parameters and performance of different models and can switch between forecasting rules. We compute the implied US-UK post-Bretton Woods exchange rate under learning. While the excess volatility of the exchange rate return can be reproduced with low values of the learning gain, the implied correlations with the fundamentals are higher than in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Lewis & A. Markiewicz, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/563, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/563
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    Cited by:

    1. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
    2. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
    4. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-223.
    6. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 11.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; disconnect; misspecification; learning;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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