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Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty

  • Garratt, Anthony
  • Lee, Kevin
  • Mise, Emi
  • Shields, Kalvinder

We undertake an empirical analysis of the UK output gap using real-time data and an approach that accommodates, in a coherent way, three types of uncertainty when measuring the gap. These are model uncertainty (associated with the choice of model and de-trending technique), estimation uncertainty (with a given model) and measurement uncertainty (associated with the reliability of the data). The approach employs VAR models, along with Bayesian-style 'model averaging' procedures, to jointly explain and forecast real-time measures and realisations of output series. A comprehensive representation of the UK output gap and the associated uncertainties are provided in real time by probability forecasts over 1961q2-2005q4.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 81-102

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:1:p:81-102
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2006. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(509), pages F119-F135, 02.
  2. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 792-804, November.
  3. Alastair Cunningham & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2007. "A State Space Approach To The Policymaker's Data Uncertainty Problem," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 168, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. David I. Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Forecast Encompassing and Parameter Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 815-835, December.
  6. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
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  13. Patterson, Kerry, 2002. "The Data Measurement Process for UK GNP: Stochastic Trends, Long Memory, and Unit Roots," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 245-64, July.
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  16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
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