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The Meta Taylor Rule

  • Kevin Lee
  • James Morley
  • Kalvinder Shields

This paper provides a characterisation of U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Tay¬lor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the speciÞcation of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic un¬certainties inherent in traditional Taylor rule analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on Taylor rules obtained through standard linear regression methods, but combined using Bayesian model averaging techniques. Employing data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the ‘meta’ Taylor rule provides a ßexible but compelling characterisation of monetary policy in the United States over the last forty years.

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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) in its series Discussion Papers with number 11/07.

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Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:11/07
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  1. David E. Lindsey & Athanasios Orphanides & Robert H. Rasche, 2005. "The reform of October 1979: how it happened and why," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 187-236.
  2. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  3. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  6. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
  8. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
  10. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 792-804, November.
  13. Schwartz, Anna J., 2003. "Comment on: Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1023-1027, July.
  14. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 129-162, Winter.
  15. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
  16. Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G, 1990. "Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 137-50, Supplemen.
  17. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
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