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Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns

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  • Aiolfi, Marco
  • Favero, Carlo A.

Abstract

Recent financial research has provided evidence on the predictability of asset returns. In this Paper we consider the results contained in Pesaran-Timmerman (1995), which provided evidence on predictability of excess returns in the US stock market over the sample 1959-92. We show that the extension of the sample to the nineties weakens considerably the statistical and economic significance of the predictability of stock returns based on earlier data. We propose an extension of their framework, based on the explicit consideration of model uncertainty under rich parameterizations for the predictive models. We propose a novel methodology to deal with model uncertainty based on ‘thick’ modelling, i.e. considering a multiplicity of predictive models rather than a single predictive model. We show that portfolio allocations based on a thick modeling strategy systematically outperform thin modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A., 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3997
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    3. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Real-Time Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 212-231, February.
    5. Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
    6. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA.
    7. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    8. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Elliott, Graham & Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Complete subset regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 357-373.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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