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Data mining with local model specification uncertainty: a discussion of Hoover and Perez

Author

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  • CLIVE GRANGER
  • ALLAN TIMMERMANN

Abstract

Hoover and Perez?s results show that the general-to-specific approach performs well if the search for a linear and stable model specification is conducted in a local neighborhood around the truth. However, non-linearities, outliers, parameter instability and the absence of even approximate knowledge of the true data generating process means that in practice this approach is unlikely to perform up to the standards reported in the papers.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive Granger & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Data mining with local model specification uncertainty: a discussion of Hoover and Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 220-225.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:220-225
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    2. Genaro Sucarrat & Alvaro Escribano, 2012. "Automated Model Selection in Finance: General-to-Specific Modelling of the Mean and Volatility Specifications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 716-735, October.
    3. Teodosio Perez-Amaral & Giampiero M. Gallo & Halbert White, 2003. "A Flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 821-838, December.
    4. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, "undated". "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Beenstock, Michael & Szpiro, George, 2002. "Specification search in nonlinear time-series models using the genetic algorithm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 811-835, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Specification search; General-to-specific.;

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