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'Keep it real!': a real-time UK macro data set

  • Egginton, Don M.
  • Pick, Andreas
  • Vahey, Shaun P.

We present a real-time macro data set for the UK. Each variable has many different vintages - reflecting the revisions and s that occur over time. Our aim is to provide a resource for researchers evaluating UK forecasting performance and policy-making in real time. We illustrate the importance of these data by analysing their impacts on UK inflation forecasts and monetary policy in the late 1980s. We find that, contrary to the view of contemporary policy-makers, the initial measurements of demand-side macro variables did not disguise inflationary pressures.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-45TTKXV-6/2/8333cd278f0c2cdb6a696845bdf1b056
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 77 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 15-20

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:77:y:2002:i:1:p:15-20
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  2. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
  3. Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Patterson, K. D., 1994. "A state space model for reducing the uncertainty associated with preliminary vintages of data with an application to aggregate consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 215-222, November.
  5. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  6. Patterson, Kerry D & Heravi, Saeed M, 1991. "Data Revisions and the Expenditure Components of GDP," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 887-901, July.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  8. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Patterson, K. D. & Heravi, S. M., 1991. "Are different vintages of data on the components of GDP co-integrated? : Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 409-413, April.
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