IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Optimal Estimation of Cointegrated Systems with Irrelevant Instruments

It has been know since Phillips and Hansen (1990) that cointegrated systems can be consistently estimated using stochastic trend instruments that are independent of the system variables. A similar phenomenon occurs with deterministically trending instruments. The present work shows that such “irrelevant” deterministic trend instruments may be systematically used to produce asymptotically efficient estimates of a cointegrated system. The approach is convenient in practice, involves only linear instrumental variables estimation, and is a straightforward one step procedure with no loss of degrees of freedom in estimation. Simulations reveal that the procedure works well in practice, having little finite sample bias and less finite sample dispersion than other popular cointegrating regression procedures such as reduced rank VAR regression, fully modified least squares, and dynamic OLS. The procedure is shown to be a form of maximum likelihood estimation where the likelihood is constructed for data projected onto the trending instruments. This “trend likelihood”” is related to the notion of the local Whittle likelihood but avoids frequency domain issues altogether. Correspondingly, the approach developed here has many potential applications beyond conventional cointegrating regression, such as the estimation of long memory and fractional cointegrating relationships.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d15a/d1547.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1547.

as
in new window

Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics (January 2014), 178(2): 210-214
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1547
Note: CFP 1400
Contact details of provider: Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. repec:cep:stiecm:/2006/500 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:818-87 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1989. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 181-240, August.
  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  7. Chao, John Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1417, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Hac Estimation By Automated Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 116-142, February.
  9. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  10. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "New Unit Root Asymptotics in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1196, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Liao, Zhipeng, 2013. "Adaptive Gmm Shrinkage Estimation With Consistent Moment Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(05), pages 857-904, October.
  13. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Unit root log periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 104-124, May.
  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  16. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "Higher order approximations for Wald statistics in time series regressions with integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 157-198, May.
  17. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Chirok Han, 2004. "GMM with Many Moment Conditions," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 525, Econometric Society.
  20. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521385824 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Peter C.B.Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2009. "Econometric Inference in the Vicinity of Unity," Working Papers CoFie-06-2009, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  22. Jeganathan, P., 1995. "Some Aspects of Asymptotic Theory with Applications to Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 818-887, October.
  23. Linton, Oliver, 1995. "Second Order Approximation in the Partially Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1079-1112, September.
  24. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  25. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  26. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  28. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Higher-order approximations for frequency domain time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 297-336, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1547. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.