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Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation

Author

Listed:
  • WAN, Shui-Ki

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • WANG, Shin-Huei

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CEREFIM, FUNDP, Belgium)

  • WOO, Chi-Keung

    (Houston Baptist University, Texas, USA)

Abstract

Total tourist arrivals are the sum of disaggregate subcomponent arrivals by country of origin. We use seven time-series models to assess whether the aggregate approach that directly forecasts the total tourist arrivals outperforms the disaggregate approach that produces the total arrival forecast as an unweighted sum of its subcomponent forecasts. Based on Hong Kong's monthly tourist arrival data, we find (a) the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperforms the other non-seasonal and seasonal models under the aggregate approach, and (b) forecast performance can be improved by the disaggregate approach.

Suggested Citation

  • WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," CORE Discussion Papers 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2012039
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    File URL: http://uclouvain.be/cps/ucl/doc/core/documents/coredp2012_39web.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Dehez & Sophie Poukens, 2013. "The Shapley value as a guide to FRAND licensing agreements," Working Papers of BETA 2013-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. Nora, Vladyslav & Uno, Hiroshi, 2014. "Saddle functions and robust sets of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 866-877.
    3. Thierry Bréchet & Carmen Camacho & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2012. "Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multi-Country Setting," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00718659, HAL.
    4. WANG, Shin-Huei & BAUWENS, Luc & HSIAO, Cheng, 2012. "Forecasting long memory processes subject to structural breaks," CORE Discussion Papers 2012048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism demand; aggregate and disaggregate approaches; forecast combination; seasonal ARIMA; Holt-Winters;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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