Aggregate vs Disaggregate Data Analysis — A Paradox in the Estimation of a Money Demand Function of Japan Under the Low Interest Rate Policy
We use Japanese aggregate and disaggregate money demand data to show that conflicting inferences can arise. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of a liquidity trap. Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of cointegrating relations among aggregate variables when heterogeneous cointegration relations among micro units exist. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when such conditions are violated, it is possible to observe stable micro relations, but unit root phenomenon among macro variables. Moreover, the prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations and policy evaluation based on aggregate data ignoring heterogeneity in micro units can be grossly misleading.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: (213) 740-3521|
Fax: (213) 740-3522
Web page: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/economics/IEPR/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Statistical Properties of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator Under Cointegration," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 385-398.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2001.
"Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel,"
w200106, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 749-779.
- Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, . "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Discussion Papers 01/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Brewer, K. R. W., 1973. "Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-154, June.
- Hashem Pesaran, M., 2003. "Aggregation of linear dynamic models: an application to life-cycle consumption models under habit formation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 383-415, March.
- Arthur Lewbel, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 635-642.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-83, June.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1996. "Models, prior information, and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 51-68, November.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1994. "Aggregation and Simple Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 905-18, September.
- Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
- Hsaio, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tahmiscioglu, A. Kamil, 1998.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models Covering Short Time Periods,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9826, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992.
"Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988.
"Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
485, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Marvin S. Goodfriend, 1987. "Money: Theoretical Analysis of the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 2157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anderson, T. W., 2002. "Reduced rank regression in cointegrated models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 203-216, February.
- Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
- Hausman, Jerry, 2015.
"Specification tests in econometrics,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
- Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
- Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
- Bohn, Henning, 1995.
"The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February.
- Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
- Fujiki, Hiroshi & Hsiao, Cheng & Shen, Yan, 2002. "Is There a Stable Money Demand Function under the Low Interest Rate Policy? A Panel Data Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-23, April.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1999. "Aggregation of linear dynamic microeconomic models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Poirier, Dale J & Melino, Angelo, 1978. "A Note on the Interpretation of Regression Coefficients within a Class of Truncated Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1207-09, September.
- Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scp:wpaper:04-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.