An Augmented UK Private Expenditure Function
This paper re-examines the UK private sector expenditure function invented in the 1970s by the 'New Cambridge' School of economists led by Wynne Godley. Evidence is found that helps to justify the New Cambridge focus on a private sector aggregate. More problematic is the School's basic axiom that posits a simple long-run target norm for private financial wealth in relation to income. The wealth to income ratio is instead subject to shifting trends and persistent oscillations. One explanation is that the private sector chooses between investments in financial and non-financial assets on the basis of competing expected rates of return. These returns are not easily measured but experimentation with a proxy leads to a tentative augmented private expenditure function with interesting attributes. These include a stable steady-state ratio of financial wealth to income granted unchanging relative rates of return. Preliminary results reveal a powerful connection between UK private expenditure and house prices.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
- Feldstein, Martin S., 1973. "Tax incentives, corporate saving, and capital accumulation in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 159-171, April.
- Feldstein, Martin S & Fane, George, 1973. "Taxes, Corporate Dividend Policy and Personal Savings: The British Postwar Experience," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(4), pages 399-411, November.
- Robert J. Shiller & Pierre Perron, 1985.
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
- Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick, 1980. "Private Sector Expenditure and Financial Asset Accumulation in the U.K," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 644-53, November.
- Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
- DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
- Hossain, Akhtar, 1991. "An aggregate private expenditure function for the Bangladesh economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1107-1116, August.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989.
"Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
- M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Lance Taylor, 2008. "A foxy hedgehog: Wynne Godley and macroeconomic modelling," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 639-663, July.
- David Blake & J. Michael Orszag, 1999. "Annual estimates of personal wealth holdings in the United Kingdom since 1948," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 397-421.
- Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G, 1990. "Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 137-50, Supplemen.
- Michael Sumner, 2004. "Corporate Retentions and Consumers' Expenditure," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 119-130, 01.
- George A. Akerlof, 2007. "The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 5-36, March.
- Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988.
"Searching For a Break in GNP,"
NBER Working Papers
2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Bredin, Don & Cuthbertson, Keith, 2001.
"Liquidity Effects and Precautionary Saving in The Czech Republic,"
Research Technical Papers
4/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Don Bredin & Keith Cuthbertson, 2002. "Liquidity effects and precautionary saving in the Czech Republic," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 405-413.
- Haug, Alfred A, 2002. " Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 399-412, September.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
- Michael Sumner, 2008. "Corporate Consumption: A Postscript," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(2), pages 196-203, 03.
- Spencer, Peter D, 1981. "A Model of the Demand for British Government Stocks by Non-Bank Residents, 1967-77," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(364), pages 938-60, December.
- Chrystal, K. Alec, 1983. "The New Cambridge aggregate expenditure function : Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 137-138.
- Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 1997. "Personal Sector Wealth in the United Kingdom, 1920-56," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 43(3), pages 297-318, September.
- Wynne Godley & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2008. "Prospects for the U.S. and the World -- A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_dec_08, Levy Economics Institute.
- Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.