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China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models

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  • You, Jing

Abstract

This paper employs a spatial dynamic panel model to forecast China's energy consumption in 2011–2020. We find that energy consumption would continue to increase at least till 2020, with annual growth rates of 10% in 2011–2015 and 6% in 2016–2020. A higher proportion of service sectors in the economy and technological progress reduce energy demand. However, the latter appears to have dwindled impact since 2001. Strong spatial dependence implies copying behaviour in energy consumption across regions. Therefore, more efficient energy control at the disaggregated level can have multiplied impact on the country's goal in energy saving and carbon emission reducing.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Jing, 2013. "China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 652-668.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:4:p:652-668
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.03.003
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    Cited by:

    1. You, Jing & Huang, Yongfu, 2013. "Green-to-Grey China: Determinants and Forecasts of its Green Growth," MPRA Paper 57468, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2014.
    2. Hao, Yu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "When does the turning point in China's CO2 emissions occur? Results based on the Green Solow model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 723-745, December.
    3. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy consumption; Spatial dependence; Dynamic panel; Forecasts; China;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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