China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models
This paper employs a spatial dynamic panel model to forecast China's energy consumption in 2011–2020. We find that energy consumption would continue to increase at least till 2020, with annual growth rates of 10% in 2011–2015 and 6% in 2016–2020. A higher proportion of service sectors in the economy and technological progress reduce energy demand. However, the latter appears to have dwindled impact since 2001. Strong spatial dependence implies copying behaviour in energy consumption across regions. Therefore, more efficient energy control at the disaggregated level can have multiplied impact on the country's goal in energy saving and carbon emission reducing.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tian, Huifang & Whalley, John, 2010.
"Trade sanctions, financial transfers and BRIC participation in global climate change negotiations,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-63, January.
- Huifang Tian & John Whalley, 2009. "Trade Sanctions, Financial Transfers and BRIC's Participation in Global Climate Change Negotiations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2698, CESifo Group Munich.
- Liao, Hua & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "What induced China's energy intensity to fluctuate: 1997-2006?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4640-4649, September.
- Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March.
- Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005.
"Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
- Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004. "Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Hu, Jin-Li & Wang, Shih-Chuan, 2006. "Total-factor energy efficiency of regions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3206-3217, November.
- Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2008.
"China's energy economy: Technical change, factor demand and interfactor/interfuel substitution,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2167-2183, September.
- Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson & Bongguen Kim, 2009. "China's Energy Economy: Technical Change, Factor Demand and Interfactor/Interfuel Substitution," Working Papers 09_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- John Gibson & Bongguen Kim & Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley, 2008. "China’s Energy Economy: Technical Change, Factor Demand and Interfactor/Interfuel Substitution," Working Papers in Economics 08/01, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Leung, Dennis Y. C. & Yin, X. L. & Wu, C. Z., 2004. "A review on the development and commercialization of biomass gasification technologies in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 565-580, December.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008.
"Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2007. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6d28j8rg, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard Taylor, 2004. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province level information," CUDARE Working Paper Series 0971, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy, revised 2007.
- McFarland, James R. & Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D., 2009. "Analysis of the Coal Sector under Carbon Constraints," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 404-424, May.
- David Maddison, 2007. "Modelling sulphur emissions in Europe: a spatial econometric approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(4), pages 726-743, October.
- Baltagi B-H & Bresson G. & Pirotte A., 2007.
"Forecasting with Spatial Panel Data,"
Working Papers ERMES
0710, ERMES, University Paris 2.
- Maximilian Auffhammer & Ralf Steinhauser, 2007. "The Future Trajectory Of U.S. Co," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 47-61.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 50-65, January.
- Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2004.
"Meeting the Kyoto targets: the importance of developing country participation,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-19, January.
- Zhang, Zhong Xiang, 2000. "Meeting the Kyoto Targets: the importance of developing country participation," CCSO Working Papers 200013, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Long Gen Ying, 2003. "Understanding China’s recent growth experience: A spatial econometric perspective," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 613-628, December.
- von Hirschhausen, Christian & Andres, Michael, 2000. "Long-term electricity demand in China -- From quantitative to qualitative growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 231-241, April.
- van Vuuren, Detlef & Fengqi, Zhou & Vries, Bert de & Kejun, Jiang & Graveland, Cor & Yun, Li, 2003. "Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century--exploration of baseline development and mitigation options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 369-387, March.
- Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
- Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Carbon taxation policy in China: How to protect energy- and trade-intensive sectors?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-333.
- Christopher Yang & Stephen Schneider, 1998. "Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 373-404, December.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002.
"Aggregation of Space-Time Processes,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
582, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- F. Grazi & J.C.J.M. Van den Bergh, 2008.
"Spatial organization, transport, and climate change: Comparing instruments of spatial planning and policy,"
- Grazi, Fabio & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2008. "Spatial organization, transport, and climate change: Comparing instruments of spatial planning and policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 630-639, November.
- Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Hunt, Lester C. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Does energy consumption cause economic growth?: Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 209-220.
- Aroca, Patricio & Guo, Dong & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2006. "Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99," Working Paper Series RP2006/89, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wu, Gang & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 683-691, May.
- Cattaneo, Cristina & Manera, Matteo & Scarpa, Elisa, 2011.
"Industrial coal demand in China: A provincial analysis,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-35, January.
- Matteo Manera & Cristina Cattaneo & Elisa Scarpa, 2008. "Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis," Working Papers 2008.8, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Can China contribute more to the fight against global warming?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 837-846, November.
- Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Bengochea-Morancho, Aurelia, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve for CO2," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 121-126, January.
- Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2009. "Does Accounting for Spatial Effects Help Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 938, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Adams, F. Gerard & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1263-1278, May.
- Kadoshin, Shiro & Nishiyama, Takashi & Ito, Toshihide, 2000. "The trend in current and near future energy consumption from a statistical perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 407-417, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:4:p:652-668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.