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Green-to-Grey China: Determinants and Forecasts of its Green Growth

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  • You, Jing
  • Huang, Yongfu

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants China’s green growth and its pathways in the future. We use the OECD conceptual framework for green growth to measure green growth rates for 30 provinces over the period 1998-2011. By estimating a spatial dynamic panel model at provincial level, we find that China has experienced green growth, but with slower speed in the sample period. The average green growth rate is forecast to decline first and then fluctuate around zero over the next two decades. There appears to be a conditional convergence in provincial green growth and positive spatial influence across neighboring areas, yielding a cap of the country’s level of green development in the future. Mass innovation financed by the government and green structural reforms achieved at firm level are likely to stimulate green growth, while political shocks in terms of reappointment of provincial officials could retard China’s progress to a green economy.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Jing & Huang, Yongfu, 2013. "Green-to-Grey China: Determinants and Forecasts of its Green Growth," MPRA Paper 57468, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57468
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58101/1/MPRA_paper_58101.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Green growth; spatial dynamic panel model; forecasting; China;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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