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Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Manera

    (University of Milano-Bicocca)

  • Cristina Cattaneo

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan and University of Sussex)

  • Elisa Scarpa

    (Edison Trading)

Abstract

The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with a fixed-effect spatial lag model and a fixed-effect spatial error model. The fixedeffect spatial lag model seems to better capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of 4 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Manera & Cristina Cattaneo & Elisa Scarpa, 2008. "Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis," Working Papers 2008.8, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2008.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Burke, Paul J. & Liao, Hua, 2015. "Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 309-322.
    2. Sun, Sizhong & Anwar, Sajid, 2015. "R&D status and the performance of domestic firms in China's coal mining industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 99-103.
    3. You, Jing, 2013. "China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 652-668.
    4. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.
    5. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:340-358 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spr:anresc:v:58:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-016-0782-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Li, Bing-Bing & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Wang, Jin-Cheng, 2015. "A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1671-1683.
    8. Zhang, Kun & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the green paradox in China: From the perspective of fiscal decentralization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 203-211.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy demand in China; Coal demand in China; Chinese provinces; Panel data; Spatial econometrics; Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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