Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis
The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with a fixed-effect spatial lag model and a fixed-effect spatial error model. The fixedeffect spatial lag model seems to better capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of 4 percent.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.feem.it/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jian, Tianlun & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1996. "Trends in regional inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
- Jahangir Aziz & Christoph Duenwald, 2001. "China's Provincial Growth Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 01/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Reister, David B., 1987. "The link between energy and GDP in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 427-433.
- Tianlun Jian & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1996. "Trends in Regional Inequality in China," NBER Working Papers 5412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chuanlong Tang & Sumner J. La Croix, 1993. "Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 21-36.
- Yuan, Jiahai & Zhao, Changhong & Yu, Shunkun & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: Cointegration and co-feature analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1179-1191, November.
- Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2008.
"China's energy economy: Technical change, factor demand and interfactor/interfuel substitution,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2167-2183, September.
- John Gibson & Bongguen Kim & Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley, 2008. "China’s Energy Economy: Technical Change, Factor Demand and Interfactor/Interfuel Substitution," Working Papers in Economics 08/01, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson & Bongguen Kim, 2009. "China's Energy Economy: Technical Change, Factor Demand and Interfactor/Interfuel Substitution," Working Papers 09_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Richard F. Garbaccio & Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1999. "Why Has the Energy-Output Ratio Fallen in China?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-91.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 50-65, January.
- Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
- Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March.
- Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
- Bernard Fingleton & Julie Le Gallo, 2008. "Estimating spatial models with endogenous variables, a spatial lag and spatially dependent disturbances: Finite sample properties," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(3), pages 319-339, 08.
- Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004.
"Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
04-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
- Jørgen Lauridsen, 2006. "Spatial autoregressively distributed lag models: equivalent forms, estimation, and an illustrative commuting model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 297-311, June.
- Paul Krugman, 1990.
"Increasing Returns and Economic Geography,"
NBER Working Papers
3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinton, Jonathan E., 2001. "Accuracy and reliability of China's energy statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 373-383.
- Sandy Dall'erba & Julie Le Gallo, 2008.
"Regional convergence and the impact of European structural funds over 1989-1999: A spatial econometric analysis,"
Papers in Regional Science,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 219-244, 06.
- Sandy Dall'erba & Julie Le Gallo, 2003. "Regional Convergence And The Impact Of European Structural Funds Over 1989-1999: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," Urban/Regional 0310005, EconWPA, revised 12 Feb 2004.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Can China contribute more to the fight against global warming?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 837-846, November.
- Shiu, Alice & Lam, Pun-Lee, 2004. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-54, January.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006.
"Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
- Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Hendrik Folmer & Sergio J. Rey, 2002.
"Specification Searches in Spatial Econometrics: The Relevance of Hendry's Methodology,"
- Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
- Jahangir Aziz & Christoph Duenwald, 2001. "China's Provincial Growth Dynamics," Development and Comp Systems 0012004, EconWPA.
- Liu, Na & Ang, B.W., 2007. "Factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry: Energy intensity versus product mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 609-635, July.
- Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2008.8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.