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Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime

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  • Johansson, Daniel J. A.
  • Lucas, Paul L.
  • Weitzel, Matthias
  • Ahlgren, Erik O.
  • Bazaz, A. B.
  • Chen, Wenying
  • den Elzen, Michel G. J.
  • Ghosh, Joydeep
  • Grahn, Maria
  • Liang, Qiao-Mei
  • Peterson, Sonja
  • Pradhan, Basanta K.
  • van Ruijven, Bas J.
  • Shukla, P. R.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • Wei, Yi-Ming

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how the 2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in fossil fuel prices, currency appreciation from capital inflow from carbon trading and timing of emission reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1808
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Niklas Vahlne & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2014. "Energy Efficiency at the Base of the Pyramid: A System-Based Market Model for Improved Cooking Stove Adoption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(12), pages 1-21, November.
    2. MASSIMO TAVONI & ELMAR KRIEGLER & TINO ABOUMAHBOUB & KATE CALVIN & GAUTHIER DE MAERE & MARSHALL WISE & DAVID KLEIN & JESSICA JEWELL & TOM KOBER & PAUL LUCAS & GUNNAR LUDERER & DAVID McCOLLUM & GIACOMO, 2013. "The Distribution Of The Major Economies' Effort In The Durban Platform Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-25.
    3. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    4. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.

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    Keywords

    Climate policy; China; India;

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