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The economic effects of the EU biofuel target

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  • Kretschmer, Bettina
  • Narita, Daiju
  • Peterson, Sonja

Abstract

In this paper we use the CGE model DART to assess the economic impacts and optimality of different aspects of the EU climate package. A special focus is placed on the 10% biofuel target in the EU. In particular we analyze the development in the biofuel sectors, the effects on agricultural production and prices, and finally overall welfare implications. One of the main findings is that the EU emission targets alone lead to onlyminor increases in biofuel production. Additional subsidies are necessary to reach the 10% biofuel target. This in turn increases European agricultural prices by up to 7%. Compared to a cost-effective scenario in which the EU 20% emission reduction target is reached, additional welfare losses occur due to separated carbon markets and the renewable quotas. The biofuel target has relatively small negative or even positive welfare effects in some scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kretschmer, Bettina & Narita, Daiju & Peterson, Sonja, 2009. "The economic effects of the EU biofuel target," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32984
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32984/1/62068982X.pdf
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    1. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen P. & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Edward & Woma, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. And World Agricultural Outlook," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12805, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
      • Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 7296, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    2. Martin Banse & Hans van Meijl & Andrzej Tabeau & Geert Woltjer, 2008. "Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 117-141, June.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Delzeit, Ruth & Gömann, Horst & Holm-Müller, Karin & Kreins, Peter & Kretschmer, Bettina & Münch, Julia & Peterson, Sonja, 2010. "Analysing bioenergy and land use competition in a coupled modelling system: The role of bioenergy in renewable energy policy in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1653, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    3. Grant J. Allan, 2015. "The Regional Economic Impacts of Biofuels: A Review of Multisectoral Modelling Techniques and Evaluation of Applications," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 615-643, April.
    4. Randall Jackson & Amir B. Ferreira Neto & Elham Erfanian, 2016. "Woody Biomass Processing: Potential Economic Impacts on Rural Regions," Working Papers Working Paper 2016-04-v3, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    5. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2014. "The South African Bio ethanol blend mandate and its implications on regional agricultural markets and welfare," MPRA Paper 57702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Laborde, David & Valin, Hugo, 2010. "Modelling Indirect Land Use Effects Of Biofuels:," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188100, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    7. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael, 2014. "An ethanol blend wall shift is prone to increase petroleum gasoline demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 160-165.
    8. Daniel Johansson & Paul Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik Ahlgren & A. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Maria Grahn & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta Pradhan & Bas Ruijven, 2015. "Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1335-1359, December.
    9. Thepkhun, Panida & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Shrestha, Ram M., 2013. "Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 561-572.
    10. Peters, Jeffrey C. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2016. "The database–modeling nexus in integrated assessment modeling of electric power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 107-116.
    11. Mochizuki, Junko & Coffman, Makena & Yanagida, John F., 2015. "Market, welfare and land-use implications of lignocellulosic bioethanol in Hawai'i," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 102-114.
    12. Tol, Richard S.J., 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 288-295.
    13. Rincón, Luis E. & Valencia, Monica J. & Hernández, Valentina & Matallana, Luis G. & Cardona, Carlos A., 2015. "Optimization of the Colombian biodiesel supply chain from oil palm crop based on techno-economical and environmental criteria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 154-167.
    14. Vincent Martinet, 2012. "Effect of soil heterogeneity on the welfare economics of biofuel policies," Working Papers 2012/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
    15. Klepper, Gernot, 2011. "The future of the European Emission Trading System and the Clean Development Mechanism in a post-Kyoto world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 687-698, July.
    16. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:3:p:839-860 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Junker, Franziska & Wolf, Verena & Marquardt, Sandra & Ledebur, Oliver, 2015. "Changes to EU Biofuel Policy- Turmoil on Feedstock Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211819, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Randall Jackson & Péter Járosi & Amir B. Ferreira Neto & Elham Erfanian, 2017. "Woody Biomass Processing and Rural Regional Development," Working Papers Working Paper 2017-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    19. Winchester, Niven & Malina, Robert & Staples, Mark D. & Barrett, Steven R.H., 2015. "The impact of advanced biofuels on aviation emissions and operations in the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 482-491.
    20. U. Martin Persson, 2015. "The impact of biofuel demand on agricultural commodity prices: a systematic review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(5), pages 410-428, September.
    21. De Lucia, Caterina & Bartlett, Mark, 2014. "Implementing a biofuel economy in the EU: Lessons from the SUSTOIL project and future perspectives for next generation biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 22-30.
    22. Vitezslav Pisa & Jan Bruha & Vitezslav Pisa, 2011. "Dynamics of the Commodity Prices and Quantities: An Analysis using a Dynamic Multiregional CGE Model," EcoMod2011 2889, EcoMod.
    23. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    24. Goh, Chun Sheng & Lee, Keat Teong, 2011. "Second-generation biofuel (SGB) in Southeast Asia via lignocellulosic biorefinery: Penny-foolish but pound-wise," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 2714-2718, August.
    25. Junko Mochizuki & John F. Yanagida & Makena Coffman, 2013. "Market, Welfare and Land-Use Implications of Lignocellulosic Bioethanol in HawaiÔi," Working Papers 2013-10, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE model; Climate policy; EU; Biofuels;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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