IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v222y2018icp148-157.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Huan
  • Chen, Wenying
  • Shi, Jingcheng

Abstract

Building sector accounts for nearly 30% of global final energy usage, and its energy demand is expected to keep growing with the increasing population and expanding tertiary industry in the coming decades. To achieve global climate mitigation goal, building sector will need to fully tap its potential on energy conservation and CO2 reduction. This paper simulated the transformation pathways of global energy system under 2-degree and 1.5-degree climate targets with Global TIMES model, classified the 14 model regions into high, middle and low income region, and analyzed the main features and key challenges of each region’s building sector transition pathways. Modeling results show that: (1) For global building sector, 32 Gt of CO2 emissions reduction is required between 2010 and 2050 by 2-degree target, additional 28 Gt of reduction would be essential to achieve 1.5-degree target; (2) High income region would take the lead in building sector’s CO2 mitigation, while low income region may be increasingly important when the carbon constraint gets more stringent; (3) Electrification is a critical approach in building sector’s low carbon transition, by 2050, the share of electricity in final energy consumption is expected to reach 44%, 54% and 59% in reference, 2-degree and 1.5-degree scenarios respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:222:y:2018:i:c:p:148-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191830429X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.090?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C. & Tsang, C.L., 2008. "Energy performance of building envelopes in different climate zones in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(9), pages 800-817, September.
    2. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    3. Li, Nan & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1840-1848.
    4. Huang, Weilong & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Connecting water and energy: Assessing the impacts of carbon and water constraints on China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1497-1505.
    5. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Li, Danny H.W. & Pan, Wenyan & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on building energy use in different climate zones and mitigation and adaptation implications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 274-282.
    6. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
    7. Wei, Haokun & Liu, Jian & Yang, Biao, 2014. "Cost-benefit comparison between Domestic Solar Water Heater (DSHW) and Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) systems for households in urban China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 47-55.
    8. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    9. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    10. Zhou, Zhihua & Zhang, Zhiming & Chen, Guanyi & Zuo, Jian & Xu, Pan & Meng, Chong & Yu, Zhun, 2016. "Feasibility of ground coupled heat pumps in office buildings: A China study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 266-277.
    11. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Werner, S. & Möller, B. & Persson, U. & Boermans, T. & Trier, D. & Østergaard, P.A. & Nielsen, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 475-489.
    12. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    13. Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Wang, Lining, 2016. "Quantifying the co-benefits of decarbonisation in China’s steel sector: An integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1225-1237.
    14. Chen, Wenying & Li, Hualin & Wu, Zongxin, 2010. "Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7106-7120, November.
    15. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    16. Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Ma, Ding, 2014. "A bottom-up analysis of China’s iron and steel industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1174-1183.
    17. Li, Guiqiang & Xuan, Qingdong & Pei, Gang & Su, Yuehong & Lu, Yashun & Ji, Jie, 2018. "Life-cycle assessment of a low-concentration PV module for building south wall integration in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 174-185.
    18. Arumägi, Endrik & Kalamees, Targo, 2014. "Analysis of energy economic renovation for historic wooden apartment buildings in cold climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 540-548.
    19. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
    20. Baek, Cheonghoon & Park, Sanghoon, 2012. "Policy measures to overcome barriers to energy renovation of existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3939-3947.
    21. Galvin, Ray & Sunikka-Blank, Minna, 2013. "Economic viability in thermal retrofit policies: Learning from ten years of experience in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 343-351.
    22. Zhang, Hongjun & Chen, Wenying & Huang, Weilong, 2016. "TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1505-1514.
    23. Zhang, L.Y. & Jin, L.W. & Wang, Z.N. & Zhang, J.Y. & Liu, X. & Zhang, L.H., 2017. "Effects of wall configuration on building energy performance subject to different climatic zones of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1565-1573.
    24. Yu, Xinqiao & Yan, Da & Sun, Kaiyu & Hong, Tianzhen & Zhu, Dandan, 2016. "Comparative study of the cooling energy performance of variable refrigerant flow systems and variable air volume systems in office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 725-736.
    25. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.
    26. Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
    27. Ravetz, Joe, 2008. "State of the stock--What do we know about existing buildings and their future prospects?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4462-4470, December.
    28. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    2. Huan Wang & Wenying Chen & Hongjun Zhang & Nan Li, 2020. "Modeling of power sector decarbonization in China: comparisons of early and delayed mitigation towards 2-degree target," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1843-1856, October.
    3. Chen, Han & Yang, Lei & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modelling national, provincial and city-level low-carbon energy transformation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Energy-water nexus in China's energy bases: From the Paris agreement to the Well Below 2 Degrees target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 277-286.
    5. Zhang, Qiang & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modeling China’s interprovincial electricity transmission under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    6. Li, Nan & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1840-1848.
    7. Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    8. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Modeling China’s interprovincial coal transportation under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 267-279.
    9. Sun, Liang & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Development and application of a multi-stage CCUS source–sink matching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1424-1432.
    10. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying & Zhang, Qiang, 2020. "Development of China TIMES-30P model and its application to model China's provincial low carbon transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Huang, Weilong & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Connecting water and energy: Assessing the impacts of carbon and water constraints on China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1497-1505.
    12. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 549-557.
    13. Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Wang, Lining, 2016. "Quantifying the co-benefits of decarbonisation in China’s steel sector: An integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1225-1237.
    14. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    15. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    17. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2015. "Gains from emission trading under multiple stabilization targets and technological constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 306-315.
    18. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    19. Filippo Pavanello & Enrica Cian & Marinella Davide & Malcolm Mistry & Talita Cruz & Paula Bezerra & Dattakiran Jagu & Sebastian Renner & Roberto Schaeffer & André F. P. Lucena, 2021. "Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Oshiro, Ken & Kainuma, Mikiko & Masui, Toshihiko, 2017. "Implications of Japan's 2030 target for long-term low emission pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 581-587.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:222:y:2018:i:c:p:148-157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.