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Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach

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  • Li, Nan
  • Ma, Ding
  • Chen, Wenying

Abstract

China has been the world’s largest cement producer and the cement production has led to increased energy consumption and CO2 emissions, which greatly affect the country’s social and economic development. In this paper, an integrated assessment framework was developed by combining the Stock-based model and the Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System model of China (China TIMES), and it was used in China’s cement sector to simulate the trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions during 2010–2050, under a reference scenario and three carbon tax scenarios. The modeling results show that: (1) the cement production in China will increase from 1.8 billion tons in 2010, to a peak of 2.5 billion tons in around 2017, and then gradually decrease to 1.5 billion tons in 2050; (2) Through the adoption of three alternative abatement measures (i.e., switching the fuel types, implementing the energy-efficient measures and CCS), China’s cement sector could potentially achieve a great reduction in CO2 emissions; (3) In the near future, the cement sector’s decarbonisation will mainly rely on energy efficiency improvement; while the use of alternative fuel use and CCS will be of great significance from a long-term perspective. Additionally, based on the modeling results, we build the energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies roadmap for China’s cement sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Nan & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1840-1848.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:185:y:2017:i:p2:p:1840-1848
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.12.112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Xi Yang & Xiaoqian Xi & Shan Guo & Wanqi Lin & Xiangzhao Feng, 2018. "Carbon Mitigation Pathway Evaluation and Environmental Benefit Analysis of Mitigation Technologies in China’s Petrochemical and Chemical Industry," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(12), pages 1-25, November.
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    5. Li, Wei & Gao, Shubin, 2018. "Prospective on energy related carbon emissions peak integrating optimized intelligent algorithm with dry process technique application for China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 33-54.
    6. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Frenette, Erik & Sigvaldason, Oskar, 2017. "Exploring deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 for Canada using an optimization energy model framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 774-785.
    7. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    8. Junxiao Wei & Kuang Cen & Yuanbo Geng, 2019. "Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 301-328, February.
    9. Lee, Hwarang & Eom, Jiyong & Cho, Cheolhung & Koo, Yoonmo, 2019. "A bottom-up model of industrial energy system with positive mathematical programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 679-690.
    10. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Energy-water nexus in China's energy bases: From the Paris agreement to the Well Below 2 Degrees target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 277-286.
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    12. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Modeling China’s interprovincial coal transportation under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 267-279.
    13. Junxiao Wei & Kuang Cen, 2019. "A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1343-1362, December.
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    15. Zhang, Qiang & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modeling China’s interprovincial electricity transmission under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
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