IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v250y2019icp549-557.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Huan
  • Chen, Wenying

Abstract

CO2 mitigation in the global energy system is critical in tackling climate change, each region should design its long-term strategies and implement policies accordingly to promote the energy transformation. To evaluate the impacts of existing energy policies and propose possible enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), this paper applied a 14-region global model to explore the transitions of the global and regional energy system. With the modelling of early and late NDCs enhancing plan for 2-degree target, the required energy transition of each plan was analyzed, together with the vital challenges and potential economic impacts. Model results show: 1. Existing energy policies can reduce the annual emission growth rate to 0.6% for 2015 – 2020, while their influence on long-term mitigation is limited; 2. If enhanced NDCs begin from 2030 onwards after realizing current goals, 2-degree target would become quite challenging in later period, some regions will have to cut the energy service drastically; 3. With the assumption of early enhancement and free carbon trading in the cost-optimal enhancing plan, the total cost of global energy system could be reduced by 10% in 2050, compared with the former plan; 4. Under this cost-optimal enhancing plan, developing regions may face great challenges in short to medium term, 122% of additional investment should be put in power sector in 2030, international support on both technology and finance would be essential.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 549-557.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:250:y:2019:i:c:p:549-557
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919308633
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    2. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    3. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
    4. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    5. Zhang, Hongjun & Chen, Wenying & Huang, Weilong, 2016. "TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1505-1514.
    6. Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Wang, Lining, 2016. "Quantifying the co-benefits of decarbonisation in China’s steel sector: An integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1225-1237.
    7. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Modeling China’s interprovincial coal transportation under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 267-279.
    8. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.
    9. Hof, Andries F. & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Admiraal, Annemiek & Roelfsema, Mark & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2017. "Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2°C and 1.5°C," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 30-40.
    10. Huang, Weilong & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Connecting water and energy: Assessing the impacts of carbon and water constraints on China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1497-1505.
    11. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    12. Steven K. Rose & Richard Richels & Geoffrey Blanford & Thomas Rutherford, 2017. "The Paris Agreement and next steps in limiting global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 255-270, May.
    13. Heleen L. van Soest & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Mark Roelfsema & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Annemiek Admiraal & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Andries F. Hof & Maarten van den Berg & Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen & David , 2017. "Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 165-179, September.
    14. Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Ma, Ding, 2014. "A bottom-up analysis of China’s iron and steel industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1174-1183.
    15. Hélène Benveniste & Olivier Boucher & Céline Guivarch & Hervé Le Treut & Patrick Criqui, 2018. "Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions," Post-Print hal-01662799, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyu Luo & Cong Ma & Jian Ge, 2020. "Evaluation Model and Strategy for Selecting Carbon Reduction Technology for Campus Buildings in Primary and Middle Schools in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Hidegh, Gyöngyvér & Csemány, Dávid & Vámos, János & Kavas, László & Józsa, Viktor, 2021. "Mixture Temperature-Controlled combustion of different biodiesels and conventional fuels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Liang Yan, 2022. "Evaluating China’s Role in Achieving the 1.5 °C Target of the Paris Agreement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Kabir A. Mamun & F. R. Islam & R. Haque & Aneesh A. Chand & Kushal A. Prasad & Krishneel K. Goundar & Krishneel Prakash & Sidharth Maharaj, 2022. "Systematic Modeling and Analysis of On-Board Vehicle Integrated Novel Hybrid Renewable Energy System with Storage for Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-33, February.
    6. Emília Inês Come Zebra & Gilberto Mahumane & Federico Antonio Canu & Ana Cardoso, 2021. "Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of a Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy in Mozambique: Towards NDC Ambition and Recommendations to Effectively Measure, Report, and Verify Its Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    7. Rundong Luo & Yan Li & Zhicheng Wang & Mengjiao Sun, 2022. "Co-Movement between Carbon Prices and Energy Prices in Time and Frequency Domains: A Wavelet-Based Analysis for Beijing Carbon Emission Trading System," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Bramstoft, Rasmus & Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2020. "Modelling of renewable gas and renewable liquid fuels in future integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    9. Kejun, Jiang & Chenmin, He & Songli, Zhu & Pianpian, Xiang & Sha, Chen, 2021. "Transport scenarios for China and the role of electric vehicles under global 2 °C/1.5 °C targets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Zhang, Qingyong & Mao, Xianqiang & Lu, Jianhong & Guo, Zhi & Duman, Zaenhaer & Chen, Yongpeng & Song, Peng & Tu, Kevin, 2024. "EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    11. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Cost optimal combinations of storage technologies for maximizing renewable integration in Indian power system by 2040: Multi-region approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 233-247.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    2. Chen, Han & Yang, Lei & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modelling national, provincial and city-level low-carbon energy transformation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    5. Huang, Weilong & Chen, Wenying & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2017. "The role of technology diffusion in a decarbonizing world to limit global warming to well below 2 °C: An assessment with application of Global TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 291-301.
    6. Huan Wang & Wenying Chen & Hongjun Zhang & Nan Li, 2020. "Modeling of power sector decarbonization in China: comparisons of early and delayed mitigation towards 2-degree target," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1843-1856, October.
    7. Zhang, Qiang & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modeling China’s interprovincial electricity transmission under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    8. Li, Nan & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1840-1848.
    9. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Modeling China’s interprovincial coal transportation under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 267-279.
    10. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Energy-water nexus in China's energy bases: From the Paris agreement to the Well Below 2 Degrees target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 277-286.
    11. Sun, Liang & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Development and application of a multi-stage CCUS source–sink matching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1424-1432.
    12. Yang, Xi & Pang, Jun & Teng, Fei & Gong, Ruixin & Springer, Cecilia, 2021. "The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Huang, Weilong & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Connecting water and energy: Assessing the impacts of carbon and water constraints on China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1497-1505.
    14. Li, Nan & Chen, Wenying & Zhang, Qiang, 2020. "Development of China TIMES-30P model and its application to model China's provincial low carbon transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Shao, Tianming & Pan, Xunzhang & Li, Xiang & Zhou, Sheng & Zhang, Shu & Chen, Wenying, 2022. "China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Wang, Lining, 2016. "Quantifying the co-benefits of decarbonisation in China’s steel sector: An integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1225-1237.
    17. Xuan Yanni & Yue Qiang, 2016. "Retrospective and Prospective Analysis on the Trends of China’s Steel Production," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 291-306, August.
    18. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    19. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:250:y:2019:i:c:p:549-557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.