IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v136y2021ics1364032120307255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Xi
  • Pang, Jun
  • Teng, Fei
  • Gong, Ruixin
  • Springer, Cecilia

Abstract

Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) can be cost-effective for carbon mitigation, but they also have environmental co-benefits and economic impacts that cannot be ignored. Despite many empirical studies on the co-benefits of NDCs at the national or sectoral level, there is lack of integrated assessment on DDPs for their energy, economic, and environmental impact. This is due to the limitations of bottom-up and top-down models when used alone. This paper aims to fill this gap and link the bottom-up MAPLE model with a top-down CGE model to evaluate China's DDPs' comprehensive impacts. First, results show that carbon dioxide emissions can be observed to peak in or before 2030, and non-fossil energy consumption in 2030 is around 27%, which is well above the NDC target of 20%. Second, significant environmental co-benefits can be expected: 7.1 million tons of SO2, 3.96 million tons of NOx, and 1.02 million tons of PM2.5 will be reduced in the DDP scenario compared to the reference scenario. The health co-benefits demonstrated with the model-linking approach is around 678 billion RMB, and we observe that the linked model results are more in accordance with the conclusions of existing studies. Third, after linking, we find the real GDP loss from deep decarbonization is reduced from 0.92% to 0.54% in 2030. If the environmental co-benefits are considered, the GDP loss is further offset by 0.39%. The primary innovation of this study is to give a full picture of DDPs' impact, considering both environmental co-benefits and economic losses. We aim to provide positive evidence that developing countries can achieve targets higher than stated in the NDCs through DDP efforts, which will have clear environmental co-benefits to offset the economic losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xi & Pang, Jun & Teng, Fei & Gong, Ruixin & Springer, Cecilia, 2021. "The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:136:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120307255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120307255
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110438?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xi Yang & Fei Teng, 2018. "Air quality benefit of China’s mitigation target to peak its emission by 2030," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 99-110, January.
    2. Wang, Zhenguo & Su, Bin & Xie, Rui & Long, Haiyu, 2020. "China’s aggregate embodied CO2 emission intensity from 2007 to 2012: A multi-region multiplicative structural decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Zhang, Xiang & Jin, Yana & Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Yang & Zhang, Shiqiu, 2019. "Health and economic benefits of cleaner residential heating in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 165-178.
    4. Fan, Xiaojia & Wu, Sanmang & Li, Shantong, 2019. "Spatial-temporal analysis of carbon emissions embodied in interprovincial trade and optimization strategies: A case study of Hebei, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1235-1249.
    5. Yang, Xi & Teng, Fei & Xi, Xiaoqian & Khayrullin, Egor & Zhang, Qi, 2018. "Cost–benefit analysis of China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions based on carbon marginal cost curves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 415-425.
    6. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2013. "Transition towards a low carbon economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 16-26.
    7. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2296-2307, July.
    8. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    9. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun S. & Jorgenson, Dale W. & Nielsen, Chris P., 2019. "China's emissions trading system and an ETS-carbon tax hybrid," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 741-753.
    10. Krook-Riekkola, Anna & Berg, Charlotte & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Söderholm, Patrik, 2017. "Challenges in top-down and bottom-up soft-linking: Lessons from linking a Swedish energy system model with a CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 803-817.
    11. Yi, Bo-Wen & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Inter-regional power grid planning up to 2030 in China considering renewable energy development and regional pollutant control: A multi-region bottom-up optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 641-658.
    12. Li, Na & Zhang, Xiaoling & Shi, Minjun & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2019. "Does China's air pollution abatement policy matter? An assessment of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on a multi-regional CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 213-227.
    13. Chris Bataille & Henri Waisman & Michel Colombier & Laura Segafredo & Jim Williams, 2016. "The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP): insights and emerging issues," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 1-6, June.
    14. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
    15. Tang, Ling & Shi, Jiarui & Bao, Qin, 2016. "Designing an emissions trading scheme for China with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 507-520.
    16. Bataille, Christopher & Waisman, Henri & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Jaramillo, Marcela & Delgado, Ricardo & Arguello, Ricardo & Clarke, Leon & Wild, Thomas & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo & Le Treut,, 2020. "Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10702, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Li, Zhaoling & Dai, Hancheng & Sun, Lu & Xie, Yang & Liu, Zhu & Wang, Peng & Yabar, Helmut, 2018. "Exploring the impacts of regional unbalanced carbon tax on CO2 emissions and industrial competitiveness in Liaoning province of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 9-19.
    18. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jingyu & Masui, Toshihiko, 2018. "Aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve China's INDCs: A general equilibrium assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4121-4131.
    19. Díaz, Antonia & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A. & Rodríguez, Jesús, 2019. "Economic growth, energy intensity and the energy mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1056-1077.
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2017. "The impact of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the choice of coverage industry in ETS: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1512-1527.
    21. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    22. Tian, Xu & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Huang, Zhen & Masui, Toshihiko & Fujita, Tsuyoshi, 2017. "The effects of carbon reduction on sectoral competitiveness in China: A case of Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 270-278.
    23. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    24. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    25. Rausch, Sebastian & Zhang, Da, 2018. "Capturing natural resource heterogeneity in top-down energy-economic equilibrium models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 917-926.
    26. Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Wang, Lining, 2016. "Quantifying the co-benefits of decarbonisation in China’s steel sector: An integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1225-1237.
    27. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko & Tian, Xu, 2016. "Achieving China’s INDC through carbon cap-and-trade: Insights from Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1114-1122.
    28. Bhadbhade, Navdeep & Zuberi, M. Jibran S. & Patel, Martin K., 2019. "A bottom-up analysis of energy efficiency improvement and CO2 emission reduction potentials for the swiss metals sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 173-186.
    29. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2012. "Distributional impacts of taxing carbon in China: Results from the CEEPA model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 545-551.
    30. Xu, Yan & Masui, Toshihiko, 2009. "Local air pollutant emission reduction and ancillary carbon benefits of SO2 control policies: Application of AIM/CGE model to China," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 315-325, October.
    31. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    32. Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang & Ma, Ding, 2014. "A bottom-up analysis of China’s iron and steel industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1174-1183.
    33. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    34. Liu, Yu & Lu, Yingying, 2015. "The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 96-105.
    35. Hugues, Paul & Assoumou, Edi & Maizi, Nadia, 2016. "Assessing GHG mitigation and associated cost of French biofuel sector: Insights from a TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 288-300.
    36. Zhou, Xiaoyong & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Su, Bin, 2020. "Who shapes China's carbon intensity and how? A demand-side decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    37. Cao, Chaoji & Cui, XueQin & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Xing, Lu & Zhang, Ning & Shen, Shudong & Bai, Yuqi & Deng, Zhu, 2019. "Incorporating health co-benefits into regional carbon emission reduction policy making: A case study of China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    38. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "The impact of natural gas price control in China: A computable general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 524-531.
    39. Comodi, G. & Cioccolanti, L. & Gargiulo, M., 2012. "Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-315.
    40. Bataille, Chris & Melton, Noel, 2017. "Energy efficiency and economic growth: A retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 118-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Ling & Li, Xiaofan & Cui, Qi & Guan, Bing & Li, Meng & Chen, Hao, 2024. "Decarbonization pathways to subregional carbon neutrality in China based on the top-down multi-regional CGE model: A study of Guangxi," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    2. Gao, Zhiyuan & Zhao, Ying & Li, Lianqing & Hao, Yu, 2024. "Economic effects of sustainable energy technology progress under carbon reduction targets: An analysis based on a dynamic multi-regional CGE model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    3. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    4. Özdemir, Samed & Yavuzdoğan, Ahmet & Bilgilioğlu, Burhan Baha & Akbulut, Zeynep, 2023. "SPAN: An open-source plugin for photovoltaic potential estimation of individual roof segments using point cloud data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Hampton, Harrison & Foley, Aoife, 2022. "A review of current analytical methods, modelling tools and development frameworks applicable for future retail electricity market design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    6. Olabi, A.G. & Abdelkareem, Mohammad Ali, 2022. "Renewable energy and climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Zhang, Shuo & Yu, Yadong & Kharrazi, Ali & Ren, Hongtao & Ma, Tieju, 2022. "How can structural change contribute to concurrent sustainability policy targets on GDP, emissions, energy, and employment in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    8. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    9. Aryanpur, Vahid & Fattahi, Mahshid & Mamipour, Siab & Ghahremani, Mahsa & Gallachóir, Brian Ó & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Glynn, James, 2022. "How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Zhaoling & Dai, Hancheng & Song, Junnian & Sun, Lu & Geng, Yong & Lu, Keyu & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2019. "Assessment of the carbon emissions reduction potential of China's iron and steel industry based on a simulation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 279-290.
    2. Chen, Han & Yang, Lei & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modelling national, provincial and city-level low-carbon energy transformation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Jin, Yana & Liu, Xiaorui & Chen, Xiang & Dai, Hancheng, 2020. "Allowance allocation matters in China's carbon emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of quota decline scheme of emission trading in China: A dynamic recursive CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 190-203.
    5. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 549-557.
    6. Pang, Jun & Timilsina, Govinda, 2021. "How would an emissions trading scheme affect provincial economies in China: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Zhang, Qiang & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modeling China’s interprovincial electricity transmission under low carbon transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    8. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, January.
    9. Julien Lefevre, 2018. "Modeling the Socioeconomic Impacts of the Adoption of a Carbon Pricing Instrument – Literature review," CIRED Working Papers hal-03128619, HAL.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.
    11. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    12. Huang, Weilong & Chen, Wenying & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2017. "The role of technology diffusion in a decarbonizing world to limit global warming to well below 2 °C: An assessment with application of Global TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 291-301.
    13. Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    14. Chen, Shuyang & Wang, Can, 2023. "Inequality impacts of ETS penalties: A case study on the recent Chinese nationwide ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    15. Huan Wang & Wenying Chen & Hongjun Zhang & Nan Li, 2020. "Modeling of power sector decarbonization in China: comparisons of early and delayed mitigation towards 2-degree target," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1843-1856, October.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2020. "Does the different sectoral coverage matter? An analysis of China's carbon trading market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Huang, Weilong & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Connecting water and energy: Assessing the impacts of carbon and water constraints on China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1497-1505.
    18. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "Modelling deep decarbonization of industrial energy consumption under 2-degree target: Comparing China, India and Western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1563-1572.
    19. Mardones, Cristian & Cabello, Martin, 2019. "Effectiveness of local air pollution and GHG taxes: The case of Chilean industrial sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 491-500.
    20. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:136:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120307255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.