IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v505y2025ics0304380025000900.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling China's carbon emission reduction trajectory and peak path using a system dynamic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Ruoyu
  • Fu, Cong
  • Liu, Yan
  • Xu, Yanqing
  • Li, Kenan

Abstract

The climate challenges posed by carbon emissions have garnered global attention, and China has also placed carbon emission reduction on its agenda. However, limited research has explored the long-term developing trajectory and peak path of carbon emissions. This study innovatively develops a System Dynamic model of China's carbon emission and carbon absorption using a scenario analysis approach to simulate the dynamic evolution of China's carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060. Unlike existing studies, this model integrates environmental subsystems and establishes feedback mechanisms among them, enabling a more comprehensive simulation of carbon emission dynamics and providing a more realistic representation of policy-driven carbon reduction pathways. The results showed that under the Baseline Mode, China's net and total carbon emissions will peak at 17.95 and 23.30 billion tons in 2050 and 2057, respectively. Various alternative scenarios, including Environment Protection Mode, Technology-oriented Mode, Economic Investment Mode, and Industrial Structure Adjustment Mode, each reveal distinct limitations. In the Coordinated Developing Mode, the peaking time of net carbon emission will be 8 years earlier, and carbon intensity is only 5.97 tons per thousand yuan. Sensitivity analysis emphasizes that economic investment and industrial structure optimization have significant impacts on carbon emission. This study provides deeper insights into the carbon emission reduction trajectory and peak path in various scenarios, aiming to guide policymakers in formulating carbon reduction plans scientifically.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Ruoyu & Fu, Cong & Liu, Yan & Xu, Yanqing & Li, Kenan, 2025. "Modeling China's carbon emission reduction trajectory and peak path using a system dynamic approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 505(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:505:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025000900
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380025000900
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111104?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5310-5326, November.
    3. Yang, Xi & Pang, Jun & Teng, Fei & Gong, Ruixin & Springer, Cecilia, 2021. "The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Mohammadi, Mir Ahmad & Sayadi, Ahmad Reza & Khoshfarman, Mahsa & Husseinzadeh Kashan, Ali, 2022. "A systems dynamics simulation model of a steel supply chain-case study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Christopher H. Trisos & Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot, 2020. "The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7804), pages 496-501, April.
    6. J Swanson, 2002. "Business Dynamics—Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(4), pages 472-473, April.
    7. Jiang, Zhujun & Shao, Shuai, 2014. "Distributional effects of a carbon tax on Chinese households: A case of Shanghai," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 269-277.
    8. Tian, Xin & Chang, Miao & Lin, Chen & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2014. "China’s carbon footprint: A regional perspective on the effect of transitions in consumption and production patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 19-28.
    9. Wang, Wei-Zheng & Liu, Lan-Cui & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions: An empirical analysis from OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Jefferson Lorencini Gazoni & Elisângela Aparecida Machado da Silva, 2022. "System Dynamics framework for tourism development management," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 2457-2478, August.
    11. Xiongfeng Pan & Mengna Li & Haitao Xu & Shucen Guo & Ranran Guo & Chew Tin Lee, 2021. "Simulation on the effectiveness of carbon emission trading policy: A system dynamics approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(7), pages 1447-1460, July.
    12. Marie Freckleton & Allan Wright & Roland Craigwell, 2012. "Economic growth, foreign direct investment and corruption in developed and developing countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 639-652, December.
    13. Kaika, Dimitra & Zervas, Efthimios, 2013. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory—Part A: Concept, causes and the CO2 emissions case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1392-1402.
    14. Kofi Adom, Philip & Bekoe, William & Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin & Mensah, Justice Tei & Botchway, Ebo, 2012. "Carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, industrial structure, and technical efficiency: Empirical evidence from Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco on the causal dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 314-325.
    15. Liao, Xianchun & Dogan, Eyup & Baek, Jungho, 2017. "Does corruption matter for the environment? Panel evidence from China," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-12.
    16. Ford, Andrew, 2008. "Simulation scenarios for rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the western electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 443-455, January.
    17. Olkkonen, Ville & Hirvonen, Janne & Heljo, Juhani & Syri, Sanna, 2021. "Effectiveness of building stock sustainability measures in a low-carbon energy system: A scenario analysis for Finland until 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Foxon, Timothy J., 2011. "A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2258-2267.
    19. Marie Freckleton & Allan Wright & Roland Craigwell, 2012. "Economic growth, foreign direct investment and corruption in developed and developing countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(6), pages 639-652, October.
    20. Hu, Ying & Yu, Yang & Mardani, Abbas, 2021. "Selection of carbon emissions control industries in China: An approach based on complex networks control perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    21. Marie Freckleton & Allan Wright & Roland Craigwell, 2012. "Economic growth, foreign direct investment and corruption in developed and developing countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(6), pages 639-652, October.
    22. Benjamin L. Turner & Hector M. Menendez & Roger Gates & Luis O. Tedeschi & Alberto S. Atzori, 2016. "System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-24, November.
    23. Haiying Tang & Ying Liu & Xinmei Li & Aamer Muhammad & Guoqin Huang, 2019. "Carbon sequestration of cropland and paddy soils in China: potential, driving factors, and mechanisms," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(5), pages 872-885, October.
    24. Jie Liu & Sung Jin Kang, 2024. "The Impact of Green Innovation on CO2 Emissions in China: Evidence from Spatial Regression Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 446-470, July.
    25. Xu, Guangyue & Wang, Weimin, 2020. "China’s energy consumption in construction and building sectors: An outlook to 2100," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    26. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    27. Carfora, Alfonso & Pansini, Rosaria Vega & Scandurra, Giuseppe, 2022. "Energy dependence, renewable energy generation and import demand: Are EU countries resilient?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1262-1274.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. CAZACU Mihai & TROANCA Dumitru & MARGARITA Ilinca Andrada, 2024. "Corruption And Organized Crime, Fdi Andcountries Performance In The Business Sector: A Research Review," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 76(2), pages 7-21, June.
    2. Enoch Kwaw-Nimeson & Ze Tian, 2023. "Institutional Quality, Foreign Direct Investment, and Regional Integration: Empirical Evidence From CEN-SAD," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440221, January.
    3. Yanfeng Liu & Xue Li & Xiaonan Zhu & Min-Kyu Lee & Po-Lin Lai, 2023. "The theoretical systems of OFDI location determinants in global north and global south economies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Ismahene Yahyaoui, 2024. "How Corruption Mitigates the Effect of FDI on Economic Growth?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 1344-1362, March.
    5. Emmanuel Akuoko-Konadu & Anyars Mahmud, 2025. "Corruption, Economic Growth, and Non-performing Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Analysis (2011–2019)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 23(1), pages 233-251, March.
    6. Ting Liu & Ye Huang, 2024. "The influence of subnational corruption on the conversion of foreign proprietorship: Stumbling block or lubricant? Evidence from Sino-foreign joint ventures," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 135-170, March.
    7. Helmi Hamdi & Abdelaziz Hakimi, 2023. "Corruption, imported innovation, and growth: Evidence using the panel smooth transition regression approach for developing countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 956-972, June.
    8. Di Guardo, Maria Chiara & Marrocu, Emanuela & Paci, Raffaele, 2016. "The effect of local corruption on ownership strategy in cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4225-4241.
    9. Sven Fischer, 2021. "Post-Disaster Spillovers: Evidence from Iranian Provinces," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-26, April.
    10. Tahir, Muhammad & Ibrahim, Haslindar & Zulkafli, Abdul Hadi & Mushtaq, Muhammad, 2020. "Corruption, national culture, law and dividend repatriation policy," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    11. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2016. "Voter reaction to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 309-335, May.
    12. Tian, Lixin & Jin, Rulei, 2012. "Theoretical exploration of carbon emissions dynamic evolutionary system and evolutionary scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 376-386.
    13. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Noor Azuddin Yakob, 2017. "Revisiting stock market development and economic growth nexus: The moderating role of foreign capital inflows and exchange rates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1329975-132, January.
    14. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2015. "An investigation into the determinants of hydropower generation in Ghana," MPRA Paper 68033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yang, Mengyang & Liu, Yawen & Wang, Jingle & Tang, Xiaobin, 2025. "How does digital trade development affect carbon emissions? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1475-1491.
    16. Omar Al Farooque & Ali Hamid & Lan Sun, 2022. "National Governance Index, Corruption Index and Growth Rate—International Evidence from Sub-Saharan and MENA Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Guo, Xuepeng & Pang, Jun, 2023. "Analysis of provincial CO2 emission peaking in China: Insights from production and consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    18. Yahyaoui, Ismahen, 2021. "How corruption mitigates the effect of FDI on economic growth?," MPRA Paper 111190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Anwar, Ahsan & Siddique, Muhammad & Eyup Dogan, & Sharif, Arshian, 2021. "The moderating role of renewable and non-renewable energy in environment-income nexus for ASEAN countries: Evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 956-967.
    20. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu & Oana Simona Hudea, 2019. "Exploring Foreign Direct Investment–Economic Growth Nexus—Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-33, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:505:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025000900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.