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Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the USA

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  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the USA," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12046, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcc:12046
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12046
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    2. Tian, Lixin & Jin, Rulei, 2012. "Theoretical exploration of carbon emissions dynamic evolutionary system and evolutionary scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 376-386.
    3. Romeo, Luis M. & Calvo, Elena & Valero, Antonio & De Vita, Alessia, 2009. "Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1341-1350.
    4. Wang, Xiaolei & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "How to reduce CO2 emissions in China׳s iron and steel industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1496-1505.
    5. Yuhong Wang & Xin Yao & Pengfei Yuan, 2015. "Strategic Adjustment of China’s Power Generation Capacity Structure Under the Constraint of Carbon Emission," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(3), pages 421-435, October.
    6. Weihua Liu & Rui Lan & Chaolun Yuan & Jingcheng Qiu & Yongzheng Gao & Ou Tang & Yang He & Yang Cheng, 2025. "Integration and innovation of China’s manufacturing and logistics industries and carbon emissions," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Opper, Sonja & Khalid, Usman, 2018. "Are capitalists green? Firm ownership and provincial CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 349-359.
    8. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Karpestam, Peter, 2013. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1285-1294.
    9. Dritan Osmani, "undated". "A note on optimal transfer schemes, stable coalition for environmental protection and joint maximization assumption," Working Papers FNU-176, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
    10. Meredith Fowlie, 2008. "Incomplete Environmental Regulation, Imperfect Competition, and Emissions Leakage," NBER Working Papers 14421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Xuesong Sun & Muru Li & Suyun Hou & Chunwang Zhang, 2023. "Research on the Spatial Network Characteristics, Synergistic Emission Reduction Effects and Mechanisms of Carbon Emission in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, May.
    12. Dou, Yue & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "Quantifying the impacts of energy inequality on carbon emissions in China: A household-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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