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Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Théophile Azomahou

    (Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA-Theme), Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA-Theme), Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.)

  • Tapas Mishra

    () (Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA-Theme), Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.)

Abstract

This paper studies how the spatial effects of demographic system affects economic growth of different countries. Population growth shocks (whether in aggregate or in disaggregate form) in general have spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. By constructing a ‘demographic distance’ function based on both average age-shares and their stochastic time series characteristics, we show that persistence of spatial demographic system has had discernible effects on economic growth of Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America and Offshore countries in the last four decades. While the temporal study of demographic system on economic growth fluctuations is getting popularity, this paper goes a step further to explain persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal features by studying a spatial VAR model of demography and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Théophile Azomahou & Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra, 2007. "Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth," Working Papers 07-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:07-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fang, Ying & Park, Sung Y. & Zhang, Jinfeng, 2014. "A simple spatial dependence test robust to local and distributional misspecifications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, pages 203-206.
    2. Claude DIEBOLT & Antoine PARENT & Jamel TRABELSI, 2012. "Revisiting the 1929 Crisis : Was the Fed Pre-Keynesian ? New Lessons from the Past," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 37(2), pages 280-297.
    3. Hans DEWACHTER & Romain HOUSSA & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2010. "Spatial propagation of macroeconomic shocks in Europe," Working Papers Department of Economics ces10.12, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Mishra, Tapas & Jumah, Adusei & Parhi, Mamata, 2008. "Age-structured Human Capital and Spatial Total Factor Productivity Dynamics," Economics Series 226, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    5. Petros Sekeris, 2011. "Endogenous elites: power structure and patron-client relationships," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 237-258, September.
    6. Jean Luc de Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "Education et croissance : quel lien, pour quelle politique ?," Working Papers 07-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Reassessing Edgeworth’s conjecture when population dynamics is stochastic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 130-140.
    8. Jean Luc de Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "Education et croissance : quel lien, pour quelle politique ?," Working Papers 07-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    9. Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2014. "Prestige social des professions et substituabilité des filières universitaires en France au XXème siècle," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1309-1333, Août.
    10. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2015. "Is gold good for portfolio diversification? A stochastic dominance analysis of the Paris stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, pages 98-108.
    11. Riadh Harizi, 2007. "Transport, croissance et démographie. Une analyse cliométrique," Working Papers 07-09, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    12. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2013. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Regional Systems: A Multiregional Spatial Vector Autoregressive Model for Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa13p159, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Hans Dewachter & Romain Houssa & Priscilla Toffano, 2012. "Spatial propagation of macroeconomic shocks in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 377-402.
    14. Mishra Tapas & Prskawetz Alexia & Parhi Mamata & Diebolt Claude, 2009. "A Note on Long-Memory in Population and Economic Growth," Working Papers 09-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial Persistence; Long memory; Demographic dynamics; Economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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