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Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth

  • Théophile Azomahou

    (Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA-Theme), Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA-Theme), Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.)

  • Tapas Mishra

    ()

    (Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA-Theme), Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.)

This paper studies how the spatial effects of demographic system affects economic growth of different countries. Population growth shocks (whether in aggregate or in disaggregate form) in general have spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. By constructing a ‘demographic distance’ function based on both average age-shares and their stochastic time series characteristics, we show that persistence of spatial demographic system has had discernible effects on economic growth of Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America and Offshore countries in the last four decades. While the temporal study of demographic system on economic growth fluctuations is getting popularity, this paper goes a step further to explain persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal features by studying a spatial VAR model of demography and economic growth.

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Paper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number 07-04.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:07-04
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org

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  1. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1996. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 96/40, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
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  15. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor, 2003. "A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 311-352, April.
  16. Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 1995. "Endogenous Population Growth May Imply Chaos," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 59-80, February.
  17. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
  18. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  19. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
  20. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
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