Spatial persistence of demographic shocks and economic growth
This paper studies the spatial effects of (stochastic) demographic system on economic growth. Population growth shocks (irrespective of aggregate or disaggregate form) depict spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations of many countries depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. Proposing a step further from the recent emphasis of temporal analysis of demographic system, this paper examines the persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal dynamic characteristics of the demographic system in a spatial vector autoregressive model. We construct 'demographic distance' metrics based on both average age-shares and the stochastic time series characteristics of aggregate and disaggregated population growth and show that demographic dynamics in the last four decades have had discernible effects on volatility and non-linearity in cross-country economic growth.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997.
"Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993.
"The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium,"
9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, .
"vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth,"
- Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
- Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
- Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor, 2003. "A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 311-352, April.
- L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
- Fogel, Robert W, 1994.
"Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 369-95, June.
- Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 4638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fogel, Robert W., 1993. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1993-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Claudia Goldin, 1995.
"Cliometrics and the Nobel,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 191-208, Spring.
- Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
- Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
- Barbara Janowitz, 1973. "The effects of demographic factors on age composition and the implications for per capita income," Demography, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 507-515, November.
- Chen, Xiaoheng & Conley, Timothy G., 2001. "A new semiparametric spatial model for panel time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 59-83, November.
- Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
- Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- North, Douglass C., 1993.
"Economic Performance through Time,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
1993-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 1995. "Endogenous Population Growth May Imply Chaos," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 59-80, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:98-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.