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Spatial persistence of demographic shocks and economic growth

  • Azomahou, Théophile
  • Diebolt, Claude
  • Mishra, Tapas

This paper studies the spatial effects of (stochastic) demographic system on economic growth. Population growth shocks (irrespective of aggregate or disaggregate form) depict spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations of many countries depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. Proposing a step further from the recent emphasis of temporal analysis of demographic system, this paper examines the persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal dynamic characteristics of the demographic system in a spatial vector autoregressive model. We construct 'demographic distance' metrics based on both average age-shares and the stochastic time series characteristics of aggregate and disaggregated population growth and show that demographic dynamics in the last four decades have had discernible effects on volatility and non-linearity in cross-country economic growth.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 98-127

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:98-127
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  1. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Transfers, social safety nets and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 139, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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  15. Claudia Goldin, 1995. "Cliometrics and the Nobel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 191-208, Spring.
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  17. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
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