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Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth

Author

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  • Theophile Azomahou

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Tapas Mishra

    (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

Abstract

This paper studies the spatial effects of (stochastic) demographic system on economic growth. Population growth shocks (irrespective of aggregate or disaggregate form) depict spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations of many countries depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. Proposing a step further from the recent emphasis of temporal analysis of demographic system, this paper examines the persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal dynamic characteristics of the demographic system in a spatial vector autoregressive model. We construct ‘demographic distance' metrics based on both average age-shares and the stochastic time series characteristics of aggregate and disaggregated population growth and show that demographic dynamics in the last four decades have had discernible effects on volatility and non-linearity in cross-country economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Theophile Azomahou & Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra, 2006. "Spatial Persistence of Demographic Shocks and Economic Growth," Post-Print hal-00279269, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00279269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.013
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tapas Mishra, 2011. "Human capital, age structure and growth fluctuations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4311-4329.
    2. Hans Dewachter & Romain Houssa & Priscilla Toffano, 2012. "Spatial propagation of macroeconomic shocks in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(2), pages 377-402, June.
    3. Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Reassessing Edgeworth’s conjecture when population dynamics is stochastic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 130-140.
    4. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2007. "Stratégie des étudiants et choix d’orientation: Une analyse expérimentale de l’engorgement," Working Papers 07-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2013. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Regional Systems: A Multiregional Spatial Vector Autoregressive Model for Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa13p159, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra & Bazoumana Ouattara & Mamata Parhi, 2010. "Does democratic distance matter for cross-country growth interdependence?," Working Papers 10-12, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Mishra, Tapas & Jumah, Adusei & Parhi, Mamata, 2008. "Age-structured Human Capital and Spatial Total Factor Productivity Dynamics," Economics Series 226, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Riadh Harizi, 2007. "Transport, croissance et démographie. Une analyse cliométrique," Working Papers 07-09, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    9. Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2007. "Enseignement supérieur et croissance économique. Analyse économétrique de l’hypothèse d’Aghion & Cohen," Working Papers 07-10, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    10. Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra & Bazoumana Ouattara & Mamata Parhi, 2013. "Democracy and Economic Growth in an Interdependent World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 733-749, September.
    11. Luis Eduardo Sandoval, 2018. "Socio-economics characteristics and spatial persistence of homicides in Colombia, 2000-2010," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 45(1 Year 20), pages 51-77, June.
    12. Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "Education et croissance: quel lien pour quelle politique?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13544, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Miguel A. Márquez & Julián Ramajo & Geoffrey JD. Hewings, 2015. "Regional growth and spatial spillovers: Evidence from an SpVAR for the Spanish regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94, pages 1-18, November.
    14. Fang, Ying & Park, Sung Y. & Zhang, Jinfeng, 2014. "A simple spatial dependence test robust to local and distributional misspecifications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 203-206.
    15. Mishra Tapas & Prskawetz Alexia & Parhi Mamata & Diebolt Claude, 2009. "A Note on Long-Memory in Population and Economic Growth," Working Papers 09-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial persistence; Long-memory; Demographic dynamics; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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