CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity
We analyze the short-term and the long-term determinants of energy intensity, carbon intensity and scale effects for eight developed economies and two emerging economies from 1973 to 2007. Our results show that there is a difference between the short-term and the long-term results and that climate policy are more likely to affect emission over the long-term than over the short-term. Climate policies should therefore be aimed at a time horizon of at least 8 years and year-on-year changes in emissions contains little information about the trend path of emissions. In the long-run capital accumulation is the main driver of emissions. Productivity growth reduces the energy intensity while the real oil price reduces both the energy intensity and the carbon intensity. The real oil price effect suggests that a global carbon tax is an important policy tool to reduce emissions, but our results also suggest that a carbon tax is likely to be insufficient decouple emission from economic growth. Such a decoupling is likely to require a structural transformation of the economy. The key policy challenge is thus to build new economic structures where investments in green technologies are more profitable.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
- Stern, David I. & Jotzo, Frank, 2010.
"How Ambitious are China and India’s Emissions Intensity Targets?,"
94947, Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub.
- Stern, David I. & Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "How ambitious are China and India's emissions intensity targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6776-6783, November.
- David I. Stern & Frank Jotzo, 2009. "How Ambitious are China and India's Emissions Intensity Targets?," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 1051, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Enflo, Kerstin & Kander, Astrid & Schön, Lennart, 2009.
"Electrification and energy productivity,"
Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2808-2817, September.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2009.
"Financial Openness and Productivity,"
NBER Working Papers
14843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tol, Richard S.J. & Pacala, Stephen W. & Socolow, Robert H., 2009.
"Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the USA,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 425-445, May.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Stephen W. Pacala & Robert Socolow, 2006. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Usa," Working Papers 2006.107, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Stephen W. Pacala & Robert H. Socolow, 2006. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use And Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The Usa," Working Papers FNU-100, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Mar 2006.
- Krugman, Paul R & Venables, Anthony J, 1995.
"Globalization and the Inequality of Nations,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-80, November.
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 1994. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," NBER Working Papers 5098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Saeger, 1997. "Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 579-608, December.
- Cameron Hepburn, 2006. "Regulation by Prices, Quantities, or Both: A Review of Instrument Choice," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 226-247, Summer.
- Englund, P. & Persson, T. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1990.
"Swedish Business Cyscles: 1861-1988,"
1990r, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Wang, S.S. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Wang, Q.W., 2011. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4870-4875, September.
- Chimeli, Ariaster B. & Braden, John B., 2009. "A capital scarcity theory of the environmental Kuznets curve," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 541-564, October.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2006.
"Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios For The Usa,"
FNU-101, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
- R. F. Engle, 1972.
"Band Spectrum Regressions,"
96, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Grossman, Gene M & Krueger, Alan B, 1995.
"Economic Growth and the Environment,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 353-77, May.
- Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006. "Transportation and the Geographical and Functional Integration of Global Production Networks," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 510-525.
- Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-34, November.
- Lindmark, Magnus, 2004. "Patterns of historical CO2 intensity transitions among high and low-income countries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 426-447, October.
- Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998.
"The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy,"
98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991.
"Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement,"
158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Grossman, Gene & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," NBER Working Papers 3914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. L. Weitzman, 1973.
"Prices vs. Quantities,"
106, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
- Weber, Christopher L., 2009. "Measuring structural change and energy use: Decomposition of the US economy from 1997 to 2002," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1561-1570, April.
- Jones, Donald W., 1991. "How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 621-630, September.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
- Charles Gore, 2010. "The global recession of 2009 in a long-term development perspective," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 714-738.
- Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2011. "Band Spectrum Regressions using Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2011:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- von Tunzelmann, Nick, 2003. "Historical coevolution of governance and technology in the industrial revolutions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 365-384, December.
- Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
- Jie He & Patrick Richard, 2009.
"Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in Canada,"
Cahiers de recherche
09-13, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
- Ayres, Robert U & Kneese, Allen V, 1969. "Production , Consumption, and Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 282-97, June.
- Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Sun, J. W., 1998. "Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity: A complete decomposition model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-100, February.
- Zhang, F. Q. & Ang, B. W., 2001. "Methodological issues in cross-country/region decomposition of energy and environment indicators," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 179-190, March.
- Larson, Donald & Butzer, Rita & Mundlak, Yair & Crego, Al, . "Sectoral Investment and Capital," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics sectinvcap, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Honma, Satoshi & Hu, Jin-Li, 2009. "Total-factor energy productivity growth of regions in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3941-3950, October.
- Lise, Wietze, 2006. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1841-1852, September.
- Guo, Jie & Zou, Le-Le & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "Impact of inter-sectoral trade on national and global CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of China and US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1389-1397, March.
- Hamilton, Clive & Turton, Hal, 2002. "Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 63-71, January.
- Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
- Bode, Sven, 2006. "Long-term greenhouse gas emission reductions--what's possible, what's necessary?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 971-974, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:1285-1294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.