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How Ambitious are China and India's Emissions Intensity Targets?

Author

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  • David I. Stern

    () (Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

  • Frank Jotzo

    (ANU Climate Change Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

Several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime. China and India¹s commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40-45% and 20-25% respectively between 2005 and 2020. How feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into input and output mix, climate, and a residual technology variable. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target, and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the US and EU targets. India¹s target is less ambitious, and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Stern & Frank Jotzo, 2009. "How Ambitious are China and India's Emissions Intensity Targets?," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 1051, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:eenhrr:1051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. What is Business as Usual for China and India?
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-12-04 09:46:00
    2. China Update
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-07-15 07:10:00
    3. How Ambitious are China and India's Emissions Intensity Targets?
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-03-23 06:05:00
    4. Decomposing the 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rebound
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2012-03-12 04:00:00
    5. CSTS-TISS Workshop
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-08-03 17:42:00
    6. Why is Australia Trying to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-07-25 09:44:00
    7. How Ambitious is China's Proposal to Peak CO2 Emissions by 2030?
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2014-11-18 05:04:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Ni, Jinlan & Wei, Chu & Du, Limin, 2015. "Revealing the political decision toward Chinese carbon abatement: Based on equity and efficiency criteria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 609-621.
    3. Jiang, Lei & Folmer, Henk & Ji, Minhe & Zhou, P., 2018. "Revisiting cross-province energy intensity convergence in China: A spatial panel analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 252-263.
    4. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Kefan & Chevallier, Julien & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 209-216.
    5. David I. Stern & John C. V. Pezzey & N. Ross Lambie, 2011. "Where in the World is it Cheapest to Cut Carbon Emissions? Ranking Countries by Total and Marginal Cost of Abatement," CCEP Working Papers 1111, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. David I. Stern, 2017. "The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 7-28, April.
    7. Frank Jotzo, 2013. "Emissions Trading in China: Principles, Design Options and Lessons from International Practice," CCEP Working Papers 1303, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Fei Teng & Frank Jotzo, 2014. "Reaping the Economic Benefits of Decarbonization for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(5), pages 37-54, September.
    9. Stern, David & Pezzey, John & Lambie, N., 2012. "Where in the world is it cheapest to cut carbon emissions?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 1-17.
    10. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Karpestam, Peter, 2013. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1285-1294.
    11. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q. & Li, J.S. & Tao, L., 2014. "Methane emissions of energy activities in China 1980–2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 11-21.
    12. Cansino, José M. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Rodríguez-Arévalo, María L., 2018. "How can Chile move away from a high carbon economy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-366.
    13. Truong Phuoc Truong, 2010. "A comparative study of selected Asian countries on carbon emissions with respect to different trade and climate changes mitigation policy scenarios," ARTNeT Working Papers 86, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    14. Stern, David I., 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Primer," Working Papers 249424, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    15. Rodríguez, Miguel & Pena-Boquete, Yolanda, 2017. "Carbon intensity changes in the Asian Dragons. Lessons for climate policy design," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 17-26.
    16. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q., 2014. "Methane emissions in China 2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 886-902.
    17. Shi Wang & Hua Wang & Li Zhang & Jun Dang, 2019. "Provincial Carbon Emissions Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    18. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng & Xu, Ming, 2014. "China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 692-700.
    19. P. Shukla & Subash Dhar, 2011. "Climate agreements and India: aligning options and opportunities on a new track," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 229-243, September.
    20. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2013. "Changes in energy efficiency in Australia: A decomposition of aggregate energy intensity using logarithmic mean Divisia approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 341-351.
    21. Yuan, Jiahai & Hou, Yong & Xu, Ming, 2012. "China's 2020 carbon intensity target: Consistency, implementations, and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4970-4981.
    22. Luken, Ralph A. & Piras, Stefano, 2011. "A critical overview of industrial energy decoupling programs in six developing countries in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3869-3872, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon emissions; climate change; developing countries; projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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