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Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets

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  • Frank Jotzo

    () (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

Following the Copenhagen climate Accord, developed and developing countries have pledged to cut their greenhouse gas emissions, emissions intensity or emissions relative to baseline. This analysis puts the targets for the major countries on a common footing, and compares them across different metrics. Targeted changes in absolute emissions differ markedly between countries, with continued strong increases in some developing countries but significant decreases in others including Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa, provided reasonable baseline projections are used. Differences are smaller when emissions are expressed in per capita terms. Reductions in emissions intensity of economies implicit in the targets are remarkably similar across developed and developing countries, with China's emissions intensity target spanning almost the same range as the implicit intensity reductions in the United States, EU, Japan, Australia and Canada. Targeted deviations from business-as-usual are also remarkably similar across countries, and the majority of total global reductions relative to baselines may originate from China and other developing countries. The findings suggest that targets for most major countries are broadly compatible in important metrics, and that while the overall global ambition falls short of a two degree trajectory, the targets by key developing countries including China can be considered commensurate in the context of what developed countries have pledged.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:ccepwp:0110
    as

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    File URL: http://ccep.anu.edu.au/data/2010/pdf/wpaper/CCEP-1-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross Garnaut & Stephen Howes & Frank Jotzo & Peter Sheehan, 2008. "Emissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 377-401, Summer.
    2. Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March.
    3. Lange, Andreas & Löschel, Andreas & Vogt, Carsten & Ziegler, Andreas, 2010. "On the self-interested use of equity in international climate negotiations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 359-375, April.
    4. Trevor Houser, 2010. "Copenhagen, the Accord, and the Way Forward," Policy Briefs PB10-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Vazhayil, Joy P. & Balasubramanian, R., 2010. "Copenhagen commitments and implications: A comparative analysis of India and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7442-7450, November.
    6. Frank Jotzo & John C. V. Pezzey, 2006. "Optimal Intensity Targets for Greenhouse Emissions Trading Under Uncertainty," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0605, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    7. Frank Jotzo & John Pezzey, 2007. "Optimal intensity targets for greenhouse gas emissions trading under uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 259-284, October.
    8. Macintosh, Andrew, 2010. "Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2964-2975, June.
    9. Stern, David I. & Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "How ambitious are China and India's emissions intensity targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6776-6783, November.
    10. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:02:y:2011:i:02:n:s201000781100022x is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    12. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Durban: where success will mean the avoidance of failure
      by Frank Jotzo in East Asia Forum on 2011-11-30 17:00:00
    2. Indonesia’s role in international climate change policy
      by Frank Jotzo in East Asia Forum on 2011-10-11 16:00:18
    3. Durban: where success will mean the avoidance of failure
      by Stephen Howes and Frank Jotzo in Development Policy Blog on 2011-11-28 01:00:13
    4. Why is Australia Trying to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-07-25 09:44:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stern, David I. & Pezzey, John C. V. & Lambie, N. Ross, 2011. "Where in the World is it Cheapest to Cut Carbon Emissions? Ranking Countries by Total and Marginal Cost of Abatement," Working Papers 249534, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    2. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
    3. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:57:y:2012:i:02:n:s0217590812500087 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Warwick J McKibbin & Adele C Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen, 2012. "Bridging the Gap: Integrating Price Mechanisms Into International Climate Negotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2012-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. David I. Stern & John C. V. Pezzey & N. Ross Lambie, 2012. "Where in the world is it cheapest to cut carbon emissions?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 315-331, July.
    6. Peter Lloyd, 2012. "The role of developing countries in global economic governance," Working Papers 11712, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    7. Howes, Stephen & Wyrwoll, Paul, 2012. "Climate Change Mitigation and Green Growth in Developing Asia," ADBI Working Papers 369, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.
    9. Stephen Howes & Paul Wyrwoll, 2012. "Climate Change Mitigation and Green Growth in Developing Asia," Working Papers id:5059, eSocialSciences.
    10. Frank Jotzo & Steve Hatfield-Dodds, 2011. "Price Floors in Emissions Trading to Reduce Policy Related Investment Risks: an Australian View," CCEP Working Papers 1105, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Peter Lloyd, 2012. "Multilateralism in Crisis," Working Papers 11412, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; mitigation; developing countries; emissions intensity;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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