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Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets

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  • Frank Jotzo

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

Following the Copenhagen climate Accord, developed and developing countries have pledged to cut their greenhouse gas emissions, emissions intensity or emissions relative to baseline. This analysis puts the targets for the major countries on a common footing, and compares them across different metrics. Targeted changes in absolute emissions differ markedly between countries, with continued strong increases in some developing countries but significant decreases in others including Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa, provided reasonable baseline projections are used. Differences are smaller when emissions are expressed in per capita terms. Reductions in emissions intensity of economies implicit in the targets are remarkably similar across developed and developing countries, with China's emissions intensity target spanning almost the same range as the implicit intensity reductions in the United States, EU, Japan, Australia and Canada. Targeted deviations from business-as-usual are also remarkably similar across countries, and the majority of total global reductions relative to baselines may originate from China and other developing countries. The findings suggest that targets for most major countries are broadly compatible in important metrics, and that while the overall global ambition falls short of a two degree trajectory, the targets by key developing countries including China can be considered commensurate in the context of what developed countries have pledged.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:ccepwp:0110
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    File URL: http://ccep.anu.edu.au/data/2010/pdf/wpaper/CCEP-1-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Durban: where success will mean the avoidance of failure
      by Stephen Howes and Frank Jotzo in Development Policy Blog on 2011-11-28 01:00:13
    2. Why is Australia Trying to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-07-25 09:44:00
    3. Indonesia’s role in international climate change policy
      by Frank Jotzo in East Asia Forum on 2011-10-11 16:00:18
    4. Durban: where success will mean the avoidance of failure
      by Frank Jotzo in East Asia Forum on 2011-11-30 17:00:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Jotzo, 2011. "Carbon Pricing that Builds Consensus and Reduces Australia's Emissions: Managing Uncertainties Using a Rising Fixed Price Evolving to Emissions Trading," CCEP Working Papers 1104, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Stern, David I. & Pezzey, John C. V. & Lambie, N. Ross, 2011. "Where in the World is it Cheapest to Cut Carbon Emissions? Ranking Countries by Total and Marginal Cost of Abatement," Working Papers 249534, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    3. Lloyd , Peter, 2013. "Multilateralism is in Crisis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(2), pages 67-102, April.
    4. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    5. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
    6. Peter Lloyd, 2012. "The Role Of Developing Countries In Global Economic Governance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(02), pages 1-20.
    7. Warwick J McKibbin & Adele C Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen, 2012. "Bridging the Gap: Integrating Price Mechanisms Into International Climate Negotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2012-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. David I. Stern & John C. V. Pezzey & N. Ross Lambie, 2012. "Where in the world is it cheapest to cut carbon emissions?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 315-331, July.
    9. Peter Lloyd, 2012. "The role of developing countries in global economic governance," Working Papers 11712, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    10. Yongsheng Zhang, 2015. "Reformulating the low-carbon green growth strategy in China," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(sup1), pages 40-59, December.
    11. Howes, Stephen & Wyrwoll, Paul, 2012. "Climate Change Mitigation and Green Growth in Developing Asia," ADBI Working Papers 369, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott, 2014. "Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 197-207.
    13. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.
    14. Stephen Howes & Paul Wyrwoll, 2012. "Climate Change Mitigation and Green Growth in Developing Asia," Working Papers id:5059, eSocialSciences.
    15. Frank Jotzo & Steve Hatfield-Dodds, 2011. "Price Floors in Emissions Trading to Reduce Policy Related Investment Risks: an Australian View," CCEP Working Papers 1105, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; mitigation; developing countries; emissions intensity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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