Optimal Intensity Targets for Greenhouse Emissions Trading Under Uncertainty
Uncertainty is an obstacle for commitments under cap and trade schemes. We assess how well intensity targets, where countries' permit allocations are indexed to future realised GDP, can cope with uncertainties in international greenhouse emissions trading. We present some empirical foundations for intensity targets and derive a simple rule for the optimal degree of indexation to GDP. Using an 18-region simulation model of a cooperative, global cap-and-trade treaty in 2020 under multiple uncertainties and endogenous commitments, we show that optimal intensity targets could reduce the cost of uncertainty and achieve significant increases in global abatement. The optimal degree of indexation to GDP would vary greatly between countries, including super-indexation in some advanced countries, and partial indexation for most developing countries. Standard intensity targets (with one-to-one indexation) would also improve the overall outcome, but to a lesser degree and not in all individual cases. Although target indexation is no magic wand for a future global climate treaty, gains from reduced cost uncertainty and the potential for more stringent environmental commitments might justify the increased complexity and other potential downsides of intensity targets.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://een.anu.edu.au/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philippe Quirion, 2004.
"Prices versus Quantities in a Second-Best Setting,"
Environmental & Resource Economics,
Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(3), pages 337-360, November.
- Adam Rose & Brandt Stevens & Jae Edmonds & Marshall Wise, 1998. "International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 25-51, July.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-37, July.
- John C. V. Pezzey & Frank Jotzo, 2006. "Mechanisms for Abating Global Emissions Under Uncertainty," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0604, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
- Frank Jotzo, 2006. "Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0603, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
- Pizer, William A., 2002. "Combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 409-434, September.
- Quirion, Philippe, 2005.
"Does uncertainty justify intensity emission caps?,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 343-353, November.
- Peter Bohm & Björn Carlén, 2002. "A Cost-effective Approach to Attracting Low-income Countries to International Emissions Trading: Theory and Experiments," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 23(2), pages 187-211, October.
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992.
"Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
- A. Denny Ellerman & Ian Sue Wing, 2003. "Absolute versus intensity-based emission caps," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(sup2), pages S7-S20, December.
- Toman, Michael, 2003. "Economic Analysis and the Formulation of U.S. Climate Policy," Discussion Papers dp-02-59, Resources For the Future.
- Kolstad, Charles D., 2005. "The simple analytics of greenhouse gas emission intensity reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(17), pages 2231-2236, November.
- M. L. Weitzman, 1973.
"Prices vs. Quantities,"
106, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Barros, Vincente & Grand, Mariana Conte, 2002. "Implications of a dynamic target of greenhouse gases emission reduction: the case of Argentina," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 547-569, July.
- Stavins, Robert N., 1996. "Correlated Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Choice," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 218-232, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anu:eenwps:0605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jack Pezzey)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.