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Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets

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  • Frank Jotzo

    () (Australian National University, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies)

Abstract

What is the magnitude of uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, GDP and emissions intensity of economies? Is there a link between fluctuations in economic activity and fluctuations in emissions? These questions are crucial to understand the extent and composition of cost uncertainty under emissions trading schemes, the degree to which it can be reduced by mechanism design options such asintensity targets, and for calibrating models of emissions trading under uncertainty.This paper provides empirical analyses, using historical emissions data in forecast models and in country-level analysis over time. The results indicate that uncertainty about future energy sector CO2 emissions and emissions intensity is greater than uncertainty about future GDP; that uncertainties are greater in non-OECD than in OECD countries; and that there is a strong positive correlation between fluctuations in GDP and fluctuations in CO2 emissions, but not in all cases and not outside the energy sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Jotzo, 2006. "Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0603, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:anu:eenwps:0603
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    File URL: http://een.anu.edu.au/download_files/een0603.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March.
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    3. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, September.
    5. Springer, Urs, 2003. "The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol: a survey of model studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 527-551, September.
    6. Sinton, Jonathan E. & Fridley, David G., 2000. "What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 671-687, August.
    7. Randall Lutter, 2000. "Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 93-120.
    8. A. Denny Ellerman & Ian Sue Wing, 2003. "Absolute versus intensity-based emission caps," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(sup2), pages 7-20, December.
    9. Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro, 1999. "Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 565-573, October.
    10. Heil, Mark T. & Selden, Thomas M., 2001. "Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 63-83, February.
    11. O'Neill, Brian C. & Desai, Mausami, 2005. "Accuracy of past projections of US energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 979-993, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Jotzo & John Pezzey, 2007. "Optimal intensity targets for greenhouse gas emissions trading under uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 259-284, October.
    2. Frank Jotzo & John C. V. Pezzey, 2006. "Optimal Intensity Targets for Greenhouse Emissions Trading Under Uncertainty," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0605, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    3. Wang, Mingxi & Wang, Mingrong & Wang, Shouyang, 2012. "Optimal investment and uncertainty on China's carbon emission abatement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 871-877.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; GDP; emissions intensity; intensity targets; forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

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