Copenhagen commitments and implications: A comparative analysis of India and China
Dynamic targets have been long advocated as a participatory tool for developing countries in climate change mitigation. Copenhagen commitments of India and China resume this trend after the unsuccessful attempt of Argentina a decade ago. However, linear intensity targets are prone to 'hot air' problems or non-compliance risks. Intensity targets of India and China are analyzed using their elasticity parameters. The relationship of these parameters to the structural nature of emissions and GDP profiles has been demonstrated and a method of comparing the probability indices of target achievement has been formulated in this paper, showing a lower probability for China compared to India. Similarly, a method of defining stringency factor for linear targets has been suggested and stringency factors evaluated for India (40%) and China (90%), which shows the relative stability of India's targets. This paper evaluates an energy-GDP-emissions index (EYE index) to indicate the extent of coupling/decoupling of economic growth from emissions. The three indices developed in this paper, namely, elasticity parameter, stringency factor and EYE index can be effectively used to analyze the economy-emissions relationships for policy making and target setting.
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