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Modelling Complex Emissions Intensity Targets with a Simple Simulation Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Yiyong Cai
  • Yingying Lu
  • David Newth
  • Alison Stegman

Abstract

Designing, modelling and analysing global emissions policies are becoming increasingly complex undertakings. Pressure on developing economies to make quantifiable emissions reduction commitments has led to the introduction of intensity based emissions targets, where reductions in emissions are specified with reference to some measure of output, generally gross domestic product. The Copenhagen commitments of China and India are two prominent examples. From a modelling perspective, intensity targets substantially increase the complexity of analysis, with respect to both theoretical design and computational implementation. Here, a clear and practically relevant theoretical design is used to present a new algorithm that can be applied to frameworks that model the complex interaction that occurs between emissions policy instruments, emissions levels and output effects under an emissions intensity target. The coding of the algorithm has been simplified to allow for easy integration into a range of modelling frameworks. Further development of the algorithm that allows for more complex theoretical design structures is possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiyong Cai & Yingying Lu & David Newth & Alison Stegman, 2013. "Modelling Complex Emissions Intensity Targets with a Simple Simulation Algorithm," CAMA Working Papers 2013-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-33
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-02/33_2013_cai_lu_newth_stegman.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marschinski, Robert & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2010. "Revisiting the case for intensity targets: Better incentives and less uncertainty for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5048-5058, September.
    2. Frank Jotzo & John Pezzey, 2007. "Optimal intensity targets for greenhouse gas emissions trading under uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 259-284, October.
    3. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
    4. Quirion, Philippe, 2005. "Does uncertainty justify intensity emission caps?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 343-353, November.
    5. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
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    1. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.

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