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How Ambitious are China and India’s Emissions Intensity Targets?

  • Stern, David I.
  • Jotzo, Frank

As part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime, several developing economies have announced carbon emission targets for 2020. China and India’s commitments are framed as emissions intensity reductions by 40 to 45 per cent and 20 to 25 per cent respectively between 2005 and 2020. But how feasible are these proposed emissions intensity reductions, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the United States and the European Union? In this research report we use a stochastic frontier model to explain the variation in countries’ energy intensities. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios that consider various rates of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target, and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the United States and European Union targets. India’s target is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94947
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Paper provided by Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub in its series Research Reports with number 94947.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eerhrr:94947
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  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  5. Ross Garnaut & Stephen Howes & Frank Jotzo & Peter Sheehan, 2008. "Emissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 377-401, Summer.
  6. Frank Jotzo & John C. V. Pezzey, 2007. "Optimal Intensity Targets for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Under Uncertainty," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0701, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
  7. David I.Stern, 2010. "Modeling International Trends in Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emissions," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 1054, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Kumbhakar, Subal C & Ghosh, Soumendra & McGuckin, J Thomas, 1991. "A Generalized Production Frontier Approach for Estimating Determinants of Inefficiency in U.S. Dairy Farms," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 279-86, July.
  9. Stern, David I., 2009. "Energy quality," MPRA Paper 16857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Subodh Kumar & R. Robert Russell, 2002. "Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital Deepening: Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 527-548, June.
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